ESH11 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1274.50)

March E-mini S&P (ESH11) price chart with targetsIf the secular bear market is indeed re-emerging with a vengeance, then the S&P’s failure to reach a modest 1305.75 rally target after an all-but-interminable series of mincing steps becomes understandable. That failure is in fact official, since the 1267.50 point ‘C’ associated with the target was exceeded to the downside on Friday.  Further slippage today to beneath early July’s 1257.75 low would significantly increase the implied strength of the bearish impulse leg, which was catalyzed by a vicious head-fake on Friday’s opening bar.  Note that a bigger-picture target at 1356.00 remains viable, since the ‘C’ of the massive pattern that produced it lies far, far below, at 1165.75.  Even so, one gets the idea from the chart that Friday’s plunge represents a tone-change for a bull cycle that since early December has proceeded with arrogant certitude the entire way.