Gold Goes to Extremes to Test Our Nerves

As gold ascends higher and higher into thin air, it continues to test every crag, jib, flake, crevice and runout on the rock face, much to the consternation of traders, investors and speculators. At these unaccustomed heights, it is perhaps only the long-term bull who acquired physical gold a decade ago who has the reserves of patience and calm needed to take corrective swoons and trendless tedium in stride. From a technical standpoint, we find that pullbacks both major and minor have gone to absolute extremes in order to prey on our individual and collective fears and doubts. For instance, when Gold and Silver futures prices plummeted from their May 2 highs, the seeming kamikaze dive brought them to within mere ticks of an extreme “danger zone” we’d identified using Hidden Pivot analysis. Then, just as suddenly, quotes rocketed skyward, recouping nearly half of the losses in just a few short days. And last week, a selloff that took two days to exhaust the nervous Nellies tested bulls yet again, with August Gold reversing sharply from within less than a single point of a 1576.90 Hidden Pivot support.  However, even knowing where, exactly, to expect the turn offered no easy path to profits, since gold’s trampoline bounce came in the dead of night, starting at around 3:25 a.m. Eastern.

Of course, it is increasingly bullish expectations that have made bullion’s evasive moves more and more challenging.  Were it otherwise, anyone could get rich simply by betting on the favorite.  And talk about favorites! What could be more inevitable and obvious than gold’s continued rise?  Amidst a paper-money blowout the likes of which the world has never before witnessed, and the looming revelation that hundreds of trillions of dollars of global debt can never be repaid in hard cash, we can only assume gold will continue higher, right?  Indeed. But no matter how obvious all of this may seem, gold and silver will continue to challenge our expectations. And our nerves.  Fortunately, there are a few precious-metals bulls out there who are fearless in reiterating their seemingly insane bull-market targets every time bullion quotes get smashed.  Cherish these guys and trust what they say. But always verify.  Even though we are pretty confident ourselves that they’re going to be right, their nonchalance in the face of harrowing and sometimes hellacious downdrafts does not come naturally to us. We’d prefer to forecast this bull market one Hidden Pivot target at a time.  Speaking of which, the next benchmark for August Gold – a target we feel completely comfortable with and confident in — lies at precisely 1652.00. Want to know what out target is for September Silver? Try a free week’s subscription to Rick’s Picks by clicking here. You’ll get not only up-to-the-hour forecasts for some of the most popular trading vehicles, but also access to a 24/7 chat room that draws experienced traders from all over the world.

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  • Edwardo July 23, 2011, 12:44 pm

    Depending on exactly which quote one uses, the above sentiment about humans and history can be attributed to either Hegel or Santayana. The reason we don’t appear to “move on” from experience, to incorporate it in such a way that we avoid repeating certain harmful outcomes, has to do with Homo Sapiens being prone to repetition compulsion both individually and collectively. Another issue connected with our inability to learn from history is that the human lifespan is such that there is always a new group coming along who know nothing of the past.

  • Robert July 18, 2011, 9:50 pm

    “If history has taught me anything; it is simply that history teaches most people nothing.”

    -Anonymous

  • warren July 18, 2011, 6:56 pm

    Charts are are great for sighting in the ole 30.06.
    History: Fiat currencies have always failed.
    History: Repeats itself…Eccl 1:9
    History: We have seen this type of chaos at its worst before ie: Germany, Zimbabwe. These were small, relative to today’s global economy.
    Prediction: The next one will be a lot worse.
    Till next time Bye

  • FranSix July 18, 2011, 5:33 pm

    Aside from patently insane prognostications on the rise in price of gold to infinity, the gold price bull can be quantified:

    http://www.realterm.de/DAXinGold.php

    Best example so far, though you might need Google Chrome to translate to english for you. I’m sure everyone has seen other examples of Gold vs. Dow, or Gold vs. SPX, etc etc.

    So take the square root of the Dow vs. Gold, and you get roughly how many multiples the gold price should increase, and that would be a conservative approach.

  • "Obviously Seeming" vs. "Looming Revelation" July 18, 2011, 3:48 pm

    “What could be more INEVITABLE and OBVIOUS than gold’s continued rise? Amidst a paper-money blowout the likes of which the world has never before witnessed, and the LOOMING REVELATION that HUNDREDS OF TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS of global debt can NEVER BE REPAID in hard cash, WE can ONLY ASSUME gold will continue higher, RIGHT? Indeed. But no matter how OBVIOUS all of this may seem…” R.A. (caps mine)
    ———————————————————–

    TIN TIN TIN TIN TIN !!!!
    ROUND (2000) ELEVEN !!!!

    (ringside radio commentator)

    In this greatest of all
    heavyweight boxing matches in human history
    (in which vanishing wealth of the world, and it´s freedom,
    will be forever enslavingly, erosively, decisively-decided),

    between
    Muhammed Fed “Obviously Seeming”
    and
    Smokin’ Gun Joe “Looming Revelation”,

    Rounds 1 through 10
    have ALL already gone to,
    the darting, jabbing, TRICKY quick–
    Muhammed Fed “Obviously Seeming”.

    HOWEVER,
    there are still few MORE rounds,
    and as nearly EVERYBODY KNOWS,
    Smokin’ Gun Joe “Looming Revelation”,
    has that KILLER PUNCH of DEFAULT DEFLATION
    (from DECADES of MASSIVE DEBT-MUSCLE lifting),
    which can WIPE OUT, with just ONE SOLID PUNCH,
    all the slick bobbing, artful dodging of Muhammed Fed-
    thus bring DOWN, along with him, ALL those that BET
    on the “Obviously Seeming”, tulip-like charm, of the FED.

    TIN TIN TIN TIN TIN !!!!
    ROUND (2000) ELEVEN !!!!

    • rmsimc July 18, 2011, 10:45 pm

      Interesting metaphore…and there is a certain probability that you will be right. But, sovereign debt crisis is not the same as a private debt crisis. Of course, if I am margined to the hilt and get called-out, I will have to sell the good with the bad to meet my obligation. This is the root of crisis-induced deflation.

      On the other hand, if I am a sovereign govt and get called-out, I can simply print more currency to pay for the tune. This is the root of crisis-induced inflation.

      2008 was a private debt crisis…what we have here and now is a looming sovereign debt crisis. Different animals that create differing outcomes.

    • warren July 19, 2011, 12:16 am

      You are a poet no doubt
      But have you some clout
      And figure the whole mess out

  • Goodsport July 18, 2011, 1:20 pm

    Dealers are buying in Boston as well.
    The sad part – out of towners are setting up shop in hotels and buying at a fraction of melt – $6 for halves worth $14.50 melt at today’s prices.

    Even the local jeweler is on the scam, offering 58% of melt for 14K jewelry. Same with the local coin shop, only he offers nothing for the stones. It’s sad watching him take a pliers to bracelets and dropping the semi precious stones into a sorting tray with compartments that he keeps under the counter. Only the gold gets weighed and paid for.

    Then too, we have the gold parties where friends are pressured to exchange broken jewelry for worthless paper. Sad times indeed for those who do not understand the nature of real money.

  • cwd July 18, 2011, 7:01 am

    I went to the bi-weekly meeting of OPM managers, traders and old geezers last Saturday.
    Of about 75 people only 5 or 6 will admit to holding 10% of their portfolio in pms or miners and 3 or 4 old geezers including me have over 20% or more in gold or miners.
    There is basically no interest in gold in this group.
    In the DFW area, the metals dealersare buying not selling in their radio advertising.

  • Rich July 18, 2011, 5:13 am

    Apropos of Palladium, PAL is targeting 16.75 from a 2009 low of 90 cents. Seems they are on target to increase production 55%:
    http://www.napalladium.com/Theme/NAP/files/NAP_Investor_Presentation_July_2011.pdf

  • Rich July 18, 2011, 4:45 am

    Gold Point & Figure Price Objective now 1820.
    From past experience, the crazier the target, the more likely it may be…
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24GOLD

  • Chemical July 18, 2011, 3:10 am

    Your gold columns are second to none, Rick.

  • FranSix July 18, 2011, 2:22 am

    There’s been some crushing declines and reprises in price along the futures chain. $90 down and up in week:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?s=GCM11.CMX

  • beau July 18, 2011, 12:31 am

    Another suburb essay concerning the long term outlook for gold….occams razor in its very essence!