Reports from the Field: Nigeria

Paid-up subscriber Jonathan Auerbach’s very bullish reports from Africa are the man-bites-dog story of the economic world.  I will continue to keep readers apprised of his travels, since his reports are eye-openers, especially for those who think the world is lacking in great investment opportunities.  For further information, please contact Auerbach & Grayson at their New York City office. Here’s Jon:

“I am aware that some of you may be securely buckled into one of several ‘Africa Days’, currently the trendy invite (what do you mean, you weren’t called?) in New York where our firm for the second consecutive year was voted ‘Best Broker in Africa’ yesterday at the annual NYSE African Investor Day. Nevertheless, most of our Africa desk is on location, so forget the applause and take a few minutes to absorb some boots on the ground thoughts about Nigeria.I have been regularly visiting for over 10 years always hammering (I am never without a nail) the value of participating in this country’s (population 140 million) growth. For a long time easier said than done but now after two years of extraordinary events of massively reformed regulatory governance and transparency by the Central Bank, SEC, and Stock Exchange, you must consider investing in average annual growth over the past five years that is only exceeded by India, China, Pakistan, and Vietnam.

“Looking forward, at current growth rates Nigeria should pass South Africa in nominal GDP within 5 years. Over the past couple of days we have met head-to-head with the leading banks currently selling at a weighted P/B of 0.9 at a 2011E P/E of 6.3, and an average dividend yield of 8%. These are clean banks as the Central Bank took a machete to the bad banks and NPLs. The oil and gas sector is going through a unique indigenization process that should result in a number of IPOs and restructured energy company listings in the next year. Dangote Cement with current domestic capacity of 8 million tons expects their new plants to generate 20 million tons in 2012! This magnificent increase is to meet infrastructure demands for roads, bridges, railway, ports, electrification, and a severe housing and commercial space defect. On the consumer side we heard from companies expecting private consumption to double over the next 5 years. I trust that I have made a point; we’ll be back from this trip around mid-October.”