Numbers to Watch in Comex Silver and Gold

Gold did everything we’d asked of it yesterday, but Silver still has some work to do if precious-metal bulls are going to go back on the offensive. Comex December Gold need only have achieved 1659.10 yesterday to generate some positive signs on the hourly chart. In fact, it was trading well about that threshold early Monday evening, hovering round 1668 after having gotten as high as 1674.  This suggests that the next upthrust could go as high as 1729.20, a “Hidden Pivot” target that comes from our proprietary Hidden Pivot Method. (Click here to find out more about this method and the “camouflage” trading technique we use to reduce risk.) However, Silver was relatively timid, and although the December contract finished slightly higher on the day, the 31.430 peak of yesterday’s rally fell 48 cents shy of our bullish trigger threshold at 31.905. By our lights, that number is a key “hidden” resistance, and if it is bettered on a closing basis or by more than a few cents intraday, we would expect Silver to launch sharply higher, reaching a minimum 34.715 over the next 6-10 days. 

We never want to chisel these forecasts in stone, however, and we will therefore be looking closely Monday night and Tuesday for subtle signs of corroboration on the lesser charts. Meanwhile, there are two non-technical factors that strike us as bullish for gold and silver: 1) bullion quotes rose even though the U.S. dollar was also rallying; and 2) institutional sharks who typically let precious-metal prices waft higher on Sunday night did not slam them back down before the opening, as is their wont. What this suggests is that even though they generally like to fade the trend – in this instance by going short — buyers were too eager Sunday night to let it happen. Whatever the case, if you’re a night owl who tracks precious metals closely, set a screen alert at 31.860 Monday night for Comex December Silver, since that’s where the fireworks could start. Incidentally, we took a bullish stand opposite March Corn’s steep downtrend of the last four weeks, establishing a “tracking position” with a theoretical cost basis of $5.87 per bushel. Subscribers were advised to buy-stop their way aboard on the first rally from below $5.89.  If you want to see this recommendation and others in full detail but don’t subscribe, try taking a free seven-day trial by clicking here.  Incidentally, we are looking to do some similar bottom-fishing in December Crude, based on a target in the mid-$60s where we think the futures are likely to make a temporary bottom.

  • michael October 5, 2011, 10:38 pm

    Jp morgan has had a short position in silver for years.
    I have read they have 121 million oz short and that they sold 6 million oz more earlier this year.
    and on top of that the Federal Reserve recently had its first audit ever and it was revealed that they had loaned some 16 trillion dollars to various banks, including JP Morgan.
    Don’t know how much the JP Morgan loan was for but I am guessing the used some of it to build another short position at a much higher price, maybe buying back some of there lower short position fueled the rally in Silver last year and earlier this year.
    My conclusion is that the Silver market is highly manipulated, its price depressed by big banks and funded by unlimited supply of money. The big banks don’t want gold or silver used as money in the future so I conclude that they will use whatever means they can to suppress it price.
    Michael

    • Kyle October 6, 2011, 8:09 am

      If this is the case then JP Morgan got away with this massive short position and the price of silver is never going to go above 50 dollars every..Michael you can’t beat the Wall Street computers dont you think Wall Street is using some Plunge Protection Team so that the stock market will not crash and using the same computers keeping gold & silver down (best interest for the Fed)…I have talked to many people on this and the public does not care; because the public does not care about real money and as far as the public concerns, the Dollar will never fall..the dollar has the confidence of the people…I’m beginning to think the dollar is unsinkable…our governement can print the dollar to infinity they even say it on TV greenspan said we will never default because we can always print more money no country can beat that; that is why the US left the gold standard back in 1971…your thoughts michael

  • Mario cavolo October 5, 2011, 2:30 am

    as Robert pointed up, trade stats indicate that the gold dumb money speculative have walked away while the smart money commercials are long…

    Furthermore note that.the commodities markets have already had major reversals now down from 20-50%… That perhaps takes quite a bit of pressure off a variety of economic strains for the coming year. Bernanke was right on this assertion. Meanwhile, it seems that the underlying sovereign problems will in the end point to higher gold and silver as a hedge against instability and inflation.

  • Mario cavolo October 5, 2011, 2:21 am

    Very nice Robert…:)

    Dear DO, welcome to rick’s very special place…robert’s reply to you is the kind which separates the men from the boys so to speak, challenging the veracity of the themes and positions presented in a post. It’s something to greatly appreciate as it hones and braces one’s thinking and writing before pressing the submit button 🙂 Cheers Mario

  • Seawolf October 5, 2011, 2:10 am
  • Chris T. October 5, 2011, 12:45 am

    Do gold and the Nasdaq on a semi-log chart back to the mid 80s or more.

    Then tell me what the classic Mania bubble is.

    Cabbies discussing the gold price, or dad opening up a trading account to buy gold?
    Nope
    Cabbie discussing the newest Silicon valley IPO, and dad opening up a trading account to get in on the action?
    Check

    Thrifty Republicans in Congress?
    That is like someone saying they are going to cut their expenses by switching from the daily Chateau Lafite-Rothschild to a Carruades de Lafite.

  • Divergent Opinion (gold bull is OVER) October 4, 2011, 9:30 pm

    I do not agree. I see gold soon (this week, or next week at latest) retesting the low $1500 major support area.
    Basis for my short term opinion is that the DJIA, having closed below 10,700 yesterday, is now in what I see as “freefall territory”, with the next major support about 1000 points lower than right now, in the 9,600 point area; so, IMO, it will get quickly there, in only a few trading days.

    Basis for my longterm opinion (several years) is what I already wrote previously, approx. 2 weeks ago. 10-year gold bull’s manic run is over (at the $1920 bubble doubletop, which had a reading of 98% bullish gold traders, at that time), because excess credit and excess money, is over. And I consider gold price solely a byproduct of excessive cash supply, and now that’s gone.

    And the USA Fed hoonanigans are over. No more qe’s. Too much unsustainable debt coming due worldwide (approx. 100-1 ratio to actual cash), and ALL of it coming TOO FAST; plus, the USA republican congress FINALLY is becoming tighter with fiscal policy, and won´t allow another qe3. Therefore, I expect no more easy ‘funny’ money to come forth, to pump up the phony gold prices, that, IMO, only newbie ‘goldbug’ suckers, buy at. I mean, just look at gold’s 10-year chart (2001-2011), it is a historically classic MANIA chart.

    Ergo, the multiple-year gold bear has commenced, and now gold price will dance practically lockstep, with the DJIA, as it has dome often before, and on it’s way, to a way way down—price. Probably, at the bottom, years from now, back down to where it started, in 2001. Circa $250 an ounce. And if I am still alive then, and still have some cash, I would be a buyer there.

    Only USA dollar will be king now, for the next several years, during the greatest worldwide depression, in the history of man. (Swiss franc is not bad either, or the Singapore dollar, but forget the Euro, it will be worth much than the dollar, before all this is over, if—it still exists, at all, which I doubt. For I see the “European Union” disbanding before even the bottom of the world depression, possibly ending in some nasty border wars, as Europeans have a long history, of being prone to doing, and for extensive periods).

    One man’s opinion. So, let’s see what happens, over next few trading days. I hate “eating crow”, but, if next few trading days, does not have DJI hit approx. 9,600 and gold price hit the low $1,500´s (at least as a spike, intraday, for both), then, I shall return, to admit my “freefall territory” tech charting error, and will never opine on any matter again, herein.

    • Robert October 5, 2011, 1:24 am

      “the multiple-year gold bear has commenced, and now gold price will dance practically lockstep, with the DJIA, as it has done often before, and on it’s way, to a way way down—price. Probably, at the bottom, years from now, back down to where it started, in 2001. Circa $250 an ounce. And if I am still alive then, and still have some cash, I would be a buyer there.”

      ….And, at what price after that would you then sell it, perchance? Indeed, did you happen to move into a neutral (or net short) position when gold hit $1920?

      Are you so sure of your opinion that you are financing your own stated position?

      “Only USA dollar will be king now, for the next several years, during the greatest worldwide depression, in the history of man.”

      Ok, you spent 5 paragraphs justifying why the gold bull is over, and then offered absolutely zero support for the alternative argument (that the dollar is superior to gold during the coming worldwide depression)… what gives? Are we supposed to buy into the King Dollar summation simply because you profess it? Is your last name Roubini or Krugman, by any chance?

      Your presentation style has a great deal of “self-identified authority bias” behind it.

      Back to your “gold bull market is over” mantra for a moment… Seriously? you think the Comex and LBMS spot market future prices are going to mark the end of this bull market? You REALLY premise that the 1500 traders in New York and London have it right, and everyone else who trades these commodities globally are wrong? The biggest dives during the recent move from $1920 to $1600 have been made only during periods when the Globex was online, and volumes were thin.

      But regardless of that…. What about the Asians? Have you done ANY stock to flow analysis as to where the physical metal has been moving the past 2 weeks?

      I respect your “divergent opinion” , but I will point out that secular bull markets actually end when people like you are at their most bullish.

      Between 1972 and 1980 gold priced in dollars increased 2500%

      Between the 2001 year that you reference above (and the $250 price) and the $1920 peak that you call the “double top” end to the bull market, Gold has gone up 768%, making this decade long bull market in Gold one of the weakest secular bull markets of all time.

      I only disagree with you because I see a bigger picture than you see. You see the price action as it is being indicated in New York and London. I see the number of people buying Gold world-wide.

      In fact, the COT report is demonstrating that the biggest commercial shorts are covering (remember COMEX 101- sellers can not initiate open interest- only buyers can), and all the newest shorts coming on are registered in the small spec category (AKA- the guys guys who always get it wrong and end up getting killed).

      I think the big commercials are getting ready to go long and crush the small specs in a massive short squeeze- this, combined with the fact that the past two weeks have provided adequate physical off-take from the major western exchanges, should be adequate to thrust gold to $2300 per ounce, and it will most certainly get there before March 27, 2012.

      Bank on it.

    • Chris T. October 5, 2011, 1:56 am

      Robert:
      “I see the number of people buying Gold world-wide.”

      Interesting point. It is certainly more than assumed above, but is it really that many people?
      Maybe in the Asian economies, but even in India is the number of people buying really greater, or relatively constant as compared to the last 5,10, and more years? The inflows don’t show the hugest volume increases to India.

      But back to where the money still is (despite all), the developed world:
      When one does encounter people where talking about gold is even an issue (not many), even amongst those, many are not really buyers, more like interested observers.

      Point being, it still seems like the number of people in the buying world are really not that many, and are hardly at the point of last-sucker-in, which is always the mark of a final blow-off.
      So, in agreement with you on the consequence.

      Final point, not for you , you know, but for above:
      How many people who were intelligent enough to think about buying gold for valid reasons were unintelligent or misinformed enough to do so in the paper-gold market?
      Lots, and GLD is just one example. When that paper-fraud comes out, that there is not enough there there…

  • Steve Kirk October 4, 2011, 9:18 pm

    I hope Rick posts a comment on the current bloodbath. It will be interesting to see how silver gets to 34 or 35.

  • mario cavolo October 4, 2011, 6:41 pm

    Coming at the issues, including gold and silver’s economic status, from a different angle, here are a couple of questions: Since the U.S. is by far the world’s largest economy and related influence and the world’s reserve currency, no small point, doesn’t it make sense that an expanding global economy would require / utilize / absorb the increase in USD money supply as it has been unfolding since 2008? Now, don’t misunderstand, as this question does NOT exonerate the root despicable causes of the 2008 financial crisis and its ongoing precarious aftermath. Setting those issues aside and looking in terms of economics, an expanding money supply, with or without debt crises attached, leads to more inflation, which is nothing new for the past 50 years of global economic history. Now we are at a point in world history where Asia led by China is experiencing a massive global expansion predictably with the inflation that goes right along with it, much the same as occurred in the U.S. economy from the post war period. In fact, the U.S. debt driven rise was a benefit to the whole world’s economic growth who rode on its rising tide of consumer credit spending and other unruly loan practices for the past 40 years. Prices and values of goods, services, incomes, materials, etc. all continued to rise; as is now occurring in the rising Pan-pacific region of the world led by China. Also, by expanding the USD supply, isn’t that also a strategy by the U.S. to aid itself in maintaining any economic advantages it has in response to the Pan Pacific rise? In simpler Einsteinian terms, if the average price of all goods/services/assets was $10 and the money supply was 3 trillion, and now the price of all goods is $30, then we would need an equivalent money supply of 9 trillion; we need more liquidity in the economic system? Obviously and strictly my amateur entrepreneur layman’s thinking…

    Cheers, Mario

    • rickj October 5, 2011, 1:59 am

      Hi Mario; You live in China, yes? Whose economy is bigger if all Chinese transactions were measured in dollar value at American prices? So for example, an average fast food meal in America is $6, and a small apartment is $750. What if in yuan, converted to US $, those numbers are 60 cents for the meal and $75 for rent?

    • rickj October 5, 2011, 2:19 am

      Also, I kind of wonder if a 1:1 ratio of money supply growth to price growth would be enough as in theory, to be able to afford a doubled price the average person would have to pay additional taxes and debt charges to end up with the money required to buy the good, unless of course he just borrows the money to do it. Upon reflection, it is the money supply growth, the loan or credit card transaction, that initiates or makes possible the sale, not savings (any more) Stop the printing press and stop the party. At that point we realize that almost no one can repay their loans. At that point only physically held gold is not some other person`s liability and therefore everyone wants it, assuming food, shelter, clothing is taken care of. (survival farm time)

  • Chris T. October 4, 2011, 5:08 pm

    “Why wouldn’t gold really plunge during this phase of the depression?”

    If you think of gold as a commodity like copper, then that seems to make sense.
    But see your dollar=king comment:
    If you think of gold as money, then it should follow the latter logic, not copper’s.

    In exter’s pyramid, when it deflates, gold is below cash (and of course gov. bonds), which is the gold=money logic as well.

    So, this is not how a good will be priced in one currency, but a tug of war between two currencies:
    $ vs. Au

    Make believe still favors the dollar now, sort of like those people BEGGING Bernie Madoff to take their money in 2006-2007.

    • Avocado October 4, 2011, 9:04 pm

      Oops. Replied to the wrong post. See above.

  • rickj October 4, 2011, 4:47 pm

    I agree Tom. I keep wondering if the hedge funds, which might include the PPT, induced the overreaction in gold with a long the metal/short the gold stocks program that was a lot bigger than anyone thought. The goal of such operations would not be to make money, other than perhaps self-financing, but rather, to keep everyone from piling onto both gold and gold stocks. What/who would stop them from failing to deliver on the stocks, and use the proceeds of sale to finance gold futures purchases. Then they sell at a time which logically should call for buying an asset of last resort, and begin to cover the gold stock shorts.
    The absolute best timing for such an operation might be just before a planned take down of global markets which has the effect of starting the gold shares down from a lower base, not as an objective in and of itself as related to gold shares, but as a consequence of the overall plan to keep the dollar afloat.
    Sound paranoid? Yes, but I have been trading gold stocks for 35 years and these gold operations frequently occur at times which make absolutely no sense from a free and fair market point of view, though to expect a free and fair market in these times seems an absurdity as well. Investment is dead. there is only speculation in this age of liquidation.

    • Avocado October 4, 2011, 9:03 pm

      What if gold isn’t money?

      Problem with the concept of “gold as money” is that nobody uses it as such, so its just another commodity.

      Which might explain why its dropping like a rock right now.

      Andy

  • John P October 4, 2011, 2:09 pm

    Hi, I am just a rank amateur when it comes to investing but I have been following the PM markets for about 3 years now. Rick is one of the analysts whose opinions I respect the most.

    I agree with Farmer Tom in that the markets are just completely confused right now, it is so hard to know what to do.

    But from the reading I have been doing, it seems to me that 1. US dollar will drop 2. crude oil will drop 3. The Eurozone will print a trillion euros for bailouts like QE.

    All the above means a rise in price for precious metals, and we may indeed be at a bottom right now. I hope it’s not out of line to reference other analysts on this forum but here are three very interesting views, complete with charts, who corroborate Rick’s take on the current situation:

    re gold:
    http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/oct032011.html

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/Banister/oct032011.html

    re silver:
    http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/oct032011_silver.html

    Interesting reading to be sure. PS I have learned a lot from the intelligent readers and their insightful comments on this forum and I for one appreciate it.

    Best

    John P

  • Avocado October 4, 2011, 2:09 pm

    I’m curious. Gold appears to have played out a double top scenario. Using the spot price two tops at ~1900 with a bottom at ~1750, implying a minimum move to ~1600, which it did. If it rallies the most it should go up is 1750, before resuming a decline.

    Use the futures and the top is ~1925, bottom is ~1710, that implies a drop to ~1495 before a serious rally. Hasn’t gotten there yet.

    In either case it would appear that gold has seen a top for a good while to come, especially since the dollar is soaring.

    When I started writing this comment gold was at 1665, now its at 1645 on a straightline decline.

    Gold found support at the 200 day MA, as it did on the rising trendline going back to 2009.

    But the handwriting seems to be on the wall. The economy is going into chapter two of the 21st century depression, that implies serious deflation, which means a flight to the dollar to pay back all those debts, until they realize that can’t. But until they realize that, the dollar is KING, and gold gets sold off along with everything else. Debts get paid or they go into default. Either way they need dollars to pay the debt. Gold doesn’t work.

    I’m a long term bull on gold but for the last year or so almost everyone has been screaming that gold would go to the moon, not realizing that for it to do that the end of civilization would have to arrive. That’s not in the cards, short of some catastrophic occurrence nobody can predict. If an asteroid hits New York…???

    So what’s the bullish short or intermediate term case for gold in a deflationary environment? Why wouldn’t gold really plunge during this phase of the depression?

    I expect a bottom for the economy around 2014. I pity whomever is president at the time.

    Andy

    • Farmer Tom October 4, 2011, 3:43 pm

      Good answer Andy. What I am seeing though is gold has simply returned to its long term trend line. If you take out the period from July to September where it went parabolic but in fact just represents an anomaly, you can see the long term trend is still fully intact. Little has really been altered in that regard and gold has again begun to climb, albeit slowly.

  • Farmer Tom October 4, 2011, 8:43 am

    I think you have it right Rick. There is a lot of confusion right now where precious metals are concerned and analyst opinions are all over the map with regards to what will come next. I happen to side firmly with your comments of a few nights ago where you suggested a bottom was now in for PM’s. Tonights comments looking toward to a fresh upside leg emerging confirm my own bias and this is in no small part reflected by worries over the lack of commitment now being shown in the EU. To wit, should banks there become seriously compromised by a lack of political will in forging a fiscal union or embracing a version of Euro-bonds, I pretty much anticipate all hell will break loose eventually ( read as “soon”). This is clearly gold positive provided there is no change in interest rates and will confirm my belief that both the US dollar and PM’s will rise together in tandem as market declines continue in the face of bleak growth prospects and ongoing currency devaluations elsewhere.