GCZ11 – December Gold (Last:1707.90)

December Gold (GCZ11) price chart with targetsWe’ve been using an important Hidden Pivot support at 1627.30 as a minimum downside objective, and my gut feeling is that it will hold.  If not, however, we could expect the selling to continue down to at least 1580.30, the ‘D” target of a lesser pattern (see inset).  Alternatively, the most bullish scenario I could foresee that is based on Hidden Pivot logic would be an upturn from anywhere north of 1645.50, the midpoint pivot of the lesser pattern. Were a rally from within a point or two of that number evolve into an impulsive thrust on the hourly chart, it would be very bullish for the near-to-intermediate term.  In any event, if you are camouflage-equipped, you should plan on bottom-fishing near 1645.50. _______ UPDATE (8:36 p.m. EST):  Europe’s latest bailout, this time for Italy, has goosed the futures into a steep climb. Use 1712.50 as a minimum upside target for now, keeping in mind that anything above that would suggest that plenty of buying power remains to be spent.  For camouflage purposes, you can try getting long if, on the 15-minute charts, the futures create an A-B impulse leg by exceeding the 1708.90 peak from last Wednesday without taking out the more obvious one at 1710.80.  This was occurring as we went to press. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (9:50 a.m. EST):  Using three single-bar coordinates, respectively, at 1693.10, 1709.60 and 1703.60, entry came at  1707.80 at around 10:45 p.m. Half of the  usual four-contract position was to have been exited at 1711.90, and a third contract at 1720.10, the ‘D’ target of the pattern.  We are currently long a single contract with a cost basis, adjusted for theoretical gains so far, of 1686.70.  We’ll swing for the fences on this one, letting it run with a fixed stop for now at 1703.50. _______ FINAL UPDATE (4:38 p.m. EST): I supplied details of an o-c-o exit order in the chat room but didn’t get them posted here until after the futures had exceeded the upper end.  In any event, exit the position at will, but officially I’ll record a theoretical profit of $2200 per contract, based on a 1709.oo exit. If you initiated the trade using more than four contracts, I’d suggesting keeping a few, tied to the 1703.50 stop.  You should change it to a trailing stop suited to your  temperament, though, if and when 1728.80 has been exceeded to the upside.

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