I’m establishing a tracking position in March Natural Gas, since I’ve heard from a subscriber who got long last week at 2.305, the Hidden Pivot target that I first identified here around Thanksgiving as a potentially important low.  The actual low occurred at 2.289, or 1.6 cents beneath the pivot, so 2 cents is the tightest stop-loss you could have used that would have survived. Assuming four contracts bought and risk:reward held constant at 1:3, that implies an initial partial profit-taking interval on two contracts six cents above the entry price, at 2.365; and on a third, at 2.425.

That leaves us with, in theory, a single contract whose cost basis adjusted by paper profits reckoned so far is 2.121.  For now, use a stop-loss at 2.458, which is where the hourly chart would turn bearish via the creation of a downtrending impulse leg. We’ll be swinging for the fences on this one, so I’ll offer no exit target for the time being.  Odds that we actually caught the bear-market low within two cents would shorten once this vehicle has created a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart. From current levels, that would imply a thrust exceeding the 3.006 peak made on January 4.  A penny is worth $100 in this vehicle, so our paper gain so far amounts to about $4,000.