January 2012

With a decisive push past the Hidden Pivot midpoint of the pattern shown, the Gold Bugs Index appears to be easily on its way to the 548.18 target of the pattern shown. The extended move has doubtless enticed too many bulls to yield good camouflage, but traders should note nonetheless that because the spike has yet to exceed the 532.87 'external' peak from January 12, there exists the possibility of a B-C pullback on a lesser chart that would set-up a usable point 'X' entry.  This advantage will be there only if the coordinates develop quickly, so be prepared to act. ______ UPDATE: (January 29): Bulls easily achieved the target -- and now surpassed it with a so-far high at 551.36.  The move has healthy implications, since it exceeded mid-December's  549.79 peak, creating a new and bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart in the process. A legitimate B-C pullback has yet to occur, but it would need to be at least 0.618 of the k-A segment shown to recharge HUI for another leg up.

Let's use the 29.61 Hidden Pivot shown as a minimum upside objective for now.  The point 'B' of the pattern is pure sausage, so we shouldn't count on an exact hit -- just a rally target good enough for government purposes.  That implies that if 29.61 evinces no resistance whatsoever, bulls should be deemed capable of an assault on  early December's high at  30.76, a key structural resistance.  Camouflageurs should position themselves for a hair-trigger entry following a shallow B-C pullback from above the 29.09 peak recorded on December 9.  You can learn how to do this trick yourself! Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar and a $50 discount.

Yeah, yeah, I know. Yesterday's rally felt absolutely fabulous! Color me slightly skeptical, though -- skeptical enough that I'm going to continue to take this uptrend's vital signs each and every step of the way. Which means that we cannot ignore the fact that the $65 reversal failed to surpass even a single 'external' peak on the hourly chart (see inset). Bulls could easily remedy that today with a print at 1728.00, but let's not jump the gun. Camouflageurs will likely find themselves in the midst of a riot this morning, so I won't even pretend to offer you an easy way in. However, you'll have a 1741.70 target to shoot for, subject to confirmation by, and possible resistance at, 1717.70, the midpoint pivot associated with the target. My hunch is that the first impulsive ABC pattern that takes out Wednesday night's 1714.20 so-far high will produce a winning trade. _______ UPDATE (11:06 a.m. EST): And it did: with ABC coordinates on the 10-minute chart at, respectively, 1703.70 (4:30 a.m.), 1719.80 and 1713.20. Entry was triggered around 6 a.m. at 1717.30; then partial profit-taking on half the position at=1721.30, and a second round of profit-taking at 1729.30 (aka 'D').  For your further  guidance, I'll track a single, remaining contract from an initial buy of four. It's effective cost basis, reduced by paper profits taken so far, would be 1701.30. For now, used a fixed stop-loss at 1713.10, since a print there would turn the lesser charts impulsively bearish.

We'll be attempting to short this pig every chance we get, since boom times are not coming back for the banking business. At the moment, getting short means buying some put options if and when the stock reaches the 113.23 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown.  Our strategy will be to turn the puts into a vertical bear spread by shorting puts of a lower strike on the pullback we expect from 113.23.  Stay tuned for further details once the stock is trading above 111. _______ UPDATE (Feb 1): I had triple alerts set on Goldman charts, but Tradestation failed -- as it nearly always does -- to prompt me.  We'll continue to search for an ideal place to get short nonetheless, although it's possible today's high was it.

No change. There are no rally targets worth mentioning right now, but any effort to get long at these levels is justified by the robustness of last Friday's impulsive thrust. Camouflageurs should do their stalking on the 15-minute chart, which is starting to accumulate a nice inventory of potentially useful internal and external peaks.

The chart shows a 1690.10 target I'd mentioned earlier as a logical minimum rally objective if and when Monday's 1681.80 peak is surpassed. Camouflageurs should use the 15-minute chart, which displays a series of potentially usable internal and external peaks between here and 1680.

In volume-free night trading, DaBoyz have sleazed the futures back up to within a couple of points of Monday's high, demonstrating their (probably sound) belief that they still have bulls by the balls.  Where to next? Scrunch the hourly chart (see inset) a bit and, paradoxically,  this will force you to squint a good ABCD rally pattern into sharper obviousness.  This one projects to 1333.25, giving camouflageurs a theoretical 18 points to make hay. Camo cover will be hard to come by, but my suggestion would be to look for a small but perfect ABC pattern amidst the panic and confusion that is certain to attend a breakout above the 1318.25 peak.

The first remedial session for Hidden Pivot scholarship winners will follow the regular weekly tutorial class this morning.  All who are registered for the weekly class are invited to stick around, and to sit in on the lesson, which will focus on questions posed by the scholarship students.  A recording of this session and all forthcoming sessions will be available to those who are registered for the Wednesday class.

We’re not keen on market alerts, dear readers, because you probably have far too many of them to sift through already, each with a different and sometimes deliberately outrageous point of view. Even so, we should like to caution you that recent, coincident tops in Comex Gold and the S&P 500 are best not ignored. Although we remain bullish on both of these vehicles, you can infer that the yellow flag is out. This means that bullion and the broad indexes will be receiving more scrutiny than usual in the days and weeks ahead, so that Rick’s Picks subscribers will be better prepared to dodge the avalanche that is increasingly a possibility. Our specific predictions, disseminated to subscribers in the form of daily “Trading Touts,” had called for a shortable top at 1316.75 in the E-Mini S&P, and at 1681.50 in Comex March Gold. In the actual event, the recent high in Gold occurred at 1681.80, three ticks from our target; and in the E-Mini at 1318.25, six ticks from our target. These targets were derived from our proprietary Hidden Pivot Method, and although they are intended for traders, they can also be quite useful for purposes of forecasting. In this case, if the E-Mini S&P were to rip through the recent high within the next day or two, it would imply that bulls have the power to drive stocks significantly higher. Any sign of this would shift our attention toward a 13085 Hidden Pivot target identified earlier for the Dow Industrials. That’s 409 points above current levels – a good week on Wall Street, although it could take a bit longer, or even abort, if Europe’s financial problems return to prominence in the news. Why "Abort"? Why "abort"? For starters, euroheadlines such as yesterday’s – that Greece and its