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Yellow Flag Out for Stock and Gold Bulls

26 comments

We’re not keen on market alerts, dear readers, because you probably have far too many of them to sift through already, each with a different and sometimes deliberately outrageous point of view. Even so, we should like to caution you that recent, coincident tops in Comex Gold and the S&P 500 are best not ignored. Although we remain bullish on both of these vehicles, you can infer that the yellow flag is out. This means that bullion and the broad indexes will be receiving more scrutiny than usual in the days and weeks ahead, so that Rick’s Picks subscribers will be better prepared to dodge the avalanche that is increasingly a possibility. Our specific predictions, disseminated to subscribers in the form of daily “Trading Touts,” had called for a shortable top at 1316.75 in the E-Mini S&P, and at 1681.50 in Comex March Gold. In the actual event, the recent high in Gold occurred at 1681.80, three ticks from our target; and in the E-Mini at 1318.25, six ticks from our target.

These targets were derived from our proprietary Hidden Pivot Method, and although they are intended for traders, they can also be quite useful for purposes of forecasting. In this case, if the E-Mini S&P were to rip through the recent high within the next day or two, it would imply that bulls have the power to drive stocks significantly higher. Any sign of this would shift our attention toward a 13085 Hidden Pivot target identified earlier for the Dow Industrials. That’s 409 points above current levels – a good week on Wall Street, although it could take a bit longer, or even abort, if Europe’s financial problems return to prominence in the news.

Why “Abort”?

Why “abort”? For starters, euroheadlines such as yesterday’s – that Greece and its lenders are having more trouble coming to terms than had been expected – tend to weaken the euro. That drives always-crazed “investors” into U.S. Treasurys and the dollar, sapping the flow of dollars into shares. This dynamic is usually referred to by the news media as a “flight to quality,” but as we’ve explained here many times, it is actually caused by a bunch of money managers so absolutely witless they would have had trouble qualifying for CETA jobs. They operate under the assumption that if the global money system were to collapse, the euro would unravel first. Rick’s Picks thinks this will indeed prove to be the case, but not in the way that the benighted, miserably clueless money managers might imagine.  In our scenario, those who have fled to the supposed safety of dollars will have a grace period of perhaps an hour or two before their “safe haven” collapses like all the others. We shun predictions about what gold and silver will do on that day, although it seems like a no-brainer to assume that they will fare much better than T-bonds, stocks, or most other types of investable assets. We do not include currencies on our list of  endangered assets because we remain firmly convinced that currencies, fundamentally worthless though they be, will continue to circulate and have great utility during and after the extended  bank holiday that is surely coming.

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  • Mark Uzick January 26, 2012, 5:38 am

    Robert: ““There is not enough gold to solve this problem, and gold is anything but liquid. ”

    -Baloney- Read Jim Rickards book.”

    I haven’t read that book, but does his argument resemble anything like my replies to AJBAKER on SA?

    My argument rests on increasing the velocity of gold circulation, not its relative value, to accommodate its role as money in an economy growing faster than the supply of gold. I believe that the argument that gold can become as valuable as needed in a proportion equal to the size of the world economy divided by the supply of gold to be fundamentally flawed, as gold’s purchasing power does not chance over the long haul.

    Gold’s value rests not on its usefulness as money, but, on the contrary, its usefulness as money rests on its intrinsic value as a rare and desirable commodity and some other other convenient properties as enumerated by Aristotle.

    If gold’s value had to rise too disproportionately to other things in order to accommodate its role in commerce, then its ability to serve this function would break down or, more likely, create the incentive for other things to compete with and thereby supplement gold’s role as money.

    @AJBAKER:

    AJBAKER: “All money is fiat: it is essentially a promise to provide (roughly) so many units of reward in return for effort or other value. It doesn’t matter whether the fiat number is stamped on paper, on metal, or exists merely as bits in a computer. As long as people are willing to work to receive it and can expect to receive value in return for surrendering it, it is money.”

    REPLY: There are two kinds of fiat money: One doesn’t promise to provide any units of anything; that’s what most people mean by “fiat money”. The other is issued by the fiat form of government called the state; it’s a promise of a measure of something (usually gold) for each monetary unit, but the promise is a fractional reserve Ponzi scheme and likely to be reneged upon by arbitrary decree.

    People’s willingness to be fooled by counterfeit money and money of no official value does not make it real money.

    AJBAKER: “It is a little more — but not much more — difficult to increase the money supply when needed to ease the wheels of commerce when the money is paper rather than bearing a stated relationship to an amount of gold. But all of the explanations of how gold can be used as money in an expanding economy where more things are produced because its price will increase merely illustrate how completely arbitrary the value attached to a set amount of gold is.”

    REPLY: This is wrong: The purchasing power of gold increases during economic contraction and goes back to normal during economic expansion.

    Historically, the purchasing power of an ounce of gold has remained surprisingly stable for over a thousand years.

    The value of gold does not need to equal the value of all exchanges within a time-frame as gold is simply recirculated as many times as needed within a given period. A certain amount of fluctuation in its value will free up for circulation horded gold that’s needed for commerce and cause it to be saved again when it becomes undervalued.

    • Robert January 26, 2012, 6:43 pm

      Mark-

      Yeah, that’s pretty much what Rickard’s books says….

  • bc January 25, 2012, 11:42 pm

    The overnight collapse will happen, and it will be driven by a breakdown in inter-bank lending. Even the central banks cannot liquify a run on the central banks themselves. When the strong (Germany, China, Japan, US) are shown to be weak, the jig is up. This is where the MMT theory guys are wrong. Central banks can wreck their own balance sheets to an astonishing degree, but not to an infinite degree. Once three percent interest will topple all of them, the game is over. We are almost there now, and are just waiting for the markets to figure this out.

    &&&&&&

    Nicely explained, BC. I strongly agree with your logic and outlook
    . RA

  • gary leibowitz January 25, 2012, 11:36 pm

    I’ll step in for DO.

    You’re all a bunch of idiots! The market has already crashed but the powers that be, in a coordinate world effort, altered the drinking water. Haven’t you noticed you have a craving for hot dogs? Thats the telltale sign, a side effect that they were unable to mask.

    • Robert January 25, 2012, 11:46 pm

      Mmmmmm…. hot dogs. Good one, Gary. 🙂

      Served best on a Gold colored potato bun, with a lavish slathering of Goulden’s Golden Mustard, topped by a heaping of Goldmine Organic Sauerkraut… 🙂

  • Carol January 25, 2012, 9:31 pm

    Darn where is DO now that his latest prognostication is shown to be false again 🙁

    • TM January 26, 2012, 12:43 am

      If you really miss DO and his unique style, he posts as Anon20 over on Pretzelcharts.blogspot.com

    • Mark Uzick January 26, 2012, 2:36 am

      DO has gone the path of the DODO; he was unable to adapt to the simple requisites of this environment and so he’s not around anymore; i.e., he’s been banned.

    • Mark Uzick January 26, 2012, 2:48 am

      TM, he’s even worse there. It seems that he’s been intermittently banned there too; and about to get banned there again.

  • Rich January 25, 2012, 9:20 pm

    USS Enterprise on its final cruise?…

  • Rich January 25, 2012, 9:18 pm

    SPX targeting 1550, notwithstanding a correction…

  • Rich January 25, 2012, 9:17 pm

    Gold up $40 and now targeting $1930 on ZIRP til 2014…

  • Tom January 25, 2012, 8:40 pm

    Where is D.O. when you want him??? Rick it looks like you might have been spot on with your call for higher gold prices. Just past $1700.
    http://www.thebulliondesk.com/default.aspx?ReturnUrl=%2f

    The brilliant prognosticators are saying that it is because of the Fed meeting which was little changed from the last one. And somebody pays these guys!

    http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120125JW_update3.html

  • C.C. January 25, 2012, 6:53 pm

    Just get government out of the way. All of societies ills would still be with us, but they would be ills of individual choice and the consequences thereof. If any of those consequences happen to infringe on your guaranteed rights, there are already laws on the books to handle them. No need for commissions, Czars, special funding, mandates and all the rest.

    It really is quite simple. It is only that ‘simple’ generally doesn’t involve committees, petty fiefdoms, and power grabs. Those are what make society complicated.

  • Jacques Redou January 25, 2012, 6:41 pm

    Bradley

    That’s it!

    I’m getting out the phone book right now.

  • Bradley January 25, 2012, 5:57 pm

    Yeah, everything is corrupt and bad in America.

    What we need is a leader who can show us a more pure way to live…someone who has seen the corrupt, vile, heretical behavior that all Americans exhibit…perhaps someone who grew up surrounded by opulence and means, but who has rejected that life for a more ascetic, righteous lifestyle…someone who can influence masses of people to change their lifestyles as well, with rhetoric so compelling that many of the leader’s followers would do anything to convince others that theirs is the one, true way of living.

    Only then, would America get back its greatness, its sole purpose, its destiny! We the People should commit Our Lives, Our Fortunes, and Our Honor to finding such a person!

    • Robert January 25, 2012, 6:33 pm

      Hahahaha… nice Bradley.

      And for everyone who is out there screaming “Amen to that, Bradley!” and is not connecting the dots, Bradley is describing Osama Bin Laden.

    • Robert January 25, 2012, 6:44 pm

      The point, however is valid… It’s simply too bad that people always seek the most eloquent common rhetoric instead of simply living their own lives the same way they expect other people to live theirs…

      If I never trespass upon your property, you will never feel compelled to use your gun to defend it from me.

      If I only choose to use rational argument to explain to you the dangers of smoking or drug use, without compelling you to actually change your behaviors to suit my expectations, then how can you possibly argue that you are justified to expect me to finance any part of your potential medical treatments? Why should I change my behavior to suit you after I already explained to you that what you are doing is self destructive…?

      Choosing to taking me down with you is not a position of moral or ethical superiority.

      Simple, right?

  • Jacques Redou January 25, 2012, 4:37 pm

    The most serious threat to “our way of life”
    is OUR WAY of LIFE.

    Overconsumption
    Obesity
    Lack of exercise
    Lack of education
    Destruction of the environment
    Lack of morality
    Corrupt government
    Corrupt business
    Corrupt workers
    Drugs
    Crime
    An out of control Military / industrial complex
    and on and on

    American “civilization” will be destroyed from
    within – not from an external enemy

    The enemy is us.

    • Robert January 25, 2012, 11:53 pm

      Jacques –

      Many Romans survived the fall… Some even flourished.

      The trick was to not get caught wearing the white toga or Laurel head wreath of a Senator.

  • Avocado January 25, 2012, 3:35 pm

    We’ve never been here before. A worldwide loss of confidence. Will it happen? If you listen to the gold bugs for long enough then you will think its all but inevitable, followed by a complete collapse of civilization.

    Do people really think this will happen? Maybe in some banana republic, but where is all this money going to go? Gold? There is not enough gold to solve this problem, and gold is anything but liquid.

    So maybe we will just muddle along, with a takeout of the EU that benefits the US. And maybe, just maybe, the US will somehow figure it out and get back on track for fiscal stability. Obama certainly thought we could last night.

    Maybe with the right crisis that wil, happen. After all, we were able to defeat Hitler, et al, and I have to believe that was a far more serious threat to our way of life than what we face now.

    We can solve this. It will be painful. Nobody is going to like the solution, but I’m convinced we will have one, once it becomes obvious that we need to do something. And not via government takeover. I felt better when the Supreme Court restrained the power of the police in the GPS case. The system DOES work.

    Andy

    • Robert January 25, 2012, 6:28 pm

      “We’ve never been here before. A worldwide loss of confidence. Will it happen? If you listen to the gold bugs for long enough then you will think its all but inevitable, followed by a complete collapse of civilization. ”

      Baloney- most Gold bugs are among the most civil people you will meet- they simply understand the nature of the broken window fallacy and that all debt must be settled eventually.

      The entire world WILL lose faith in all forms of fiat currency… it is only a question of when. It may not be imminent, but it WILL happen- you can bank on it.

      I personally do not think it will result in the collapse of civilization- in fact- I think it will STRENGTHEN civilization as people come to grips with the fact that personal accountability, self reliance, and peaceful relations based in free and fair commerce are the only logical cornerstones for ANY form of enduring civil society.

      Eventually, when I have time, I am going to de-construct the global foreign currency exchange sham and demonstrate how trading currency X for Currency Y never results in real profits… The whole thing is one giant waste of time. Arbitrage trading around local pricing variations in REAL goods is a profitable venture, but trading dollars for Euros when the average day’s labor buys the same amount of beer on both continents is pointless.

      It is like playing poker- you will make some bets that win, and some bets that lose, but over time, your real capital will steadily erode in purchasing power as the central banks issuing BOTH currencies keep issuing more and swapping them back and forth- slowly destroying the real value of all your speculative gains.

      Same thing in poker- you will win some pots, and you will lose some pots, but you HAVE to make bets, otherwise the blinds will steadily erode your chipstack away…

      “There is not enough gold to solve this problem, and gold is anything but liquid. ”

      -Baloney- Read Jim Rickards book.

    • C.C. January 25, 2012, 6:46 pm

      “I felt better when the Supreme Court restrained the power of the police in the GPS case. The system DOES work.”

      Preface that statement with: ‘Sometimes’. Indeed, that ruling was at least, one small step in the direction of returning what was Rightfully Ours to begin with: Liberty.

      Now then, if we could just keep going down that laundry list of various in-sundry Violations of property and Liberty, perhaps sometime in the next 10 years or so, the graph will show signs of reversal away from a Police State… We can certainly work towards it –

  • mario cavolo January 25, 2012, 2:14 pm

    Isn’t there a stalemate here? The only way this monster can die is via high inflation or an inflationary event…?

    I mean, for example, as Rick suggests… some event creates a complete loss of confidence in a currency/currencies and mostly likely starts with dumping of the euro. Ok, then what?…the money temporarily goes into USD bonds until one hour later when the fools figure out that that currency also has a loss of confidence and so all the world’s money starts piling out of USD and euro. I’m good so far, there’s our global big mama currency crisis. But what assets will people move their USD and euros into then? Other currencies?…Rick says no, they’ll all be regarded as worthless paper or Rick says yes they will have “great utility”, what does he mean by that?…so we’ll all get stuck in an Argentia/Zimbabwe event or what? If yes, then that’s a massive hyperinflation event, which is the govt announcing a new currency rate, calling in all the old stuff in circulation. Then even if all prices of goods such as loaf of bread remain the same at $2, the $1 in your hand won’t be “worth” $1, it will be worth $.10 so you’ll need 20 of the new ones to buy the loaf of bread. North Korea just did this….do we think the Uncle Sam would? There are at least a dozen related questions and comments…

    Cheers, Mario

    • John Jay January 25, 2012, 4:32 pm

      Mario, I think Russia/China/India may be planning to bypass the Dollar for oil monopoly that has existed for so many years. Everyone sees us for the bankrupt fools we have become over the last 30 years. Exporting ponzi finance, weapons, and war criminal invasions and not much else. Importing everything else. The Eurozone crisis has bought us some time for now. China is hiring tankers to bring back oil from Iran, India may pay for Iran oil in gold. The US emperor has no clothes and and they know it. The geo-politics involved should be interesting to watch.

    • mario cavolo January 25, 2012, 4:46 pm

      We will definitely China continuing to go direct more and more in its trade with other countries… and so once again, the word of the day boys and girls is Remninbi…


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