Gold, Silver Appear Unintimidated

Precious metals appear to be recovering nicely after Wednesday’s punitive selloff. Although we initially assumed it might take a few weeks for gold and silver to build a base for the next moon shot, yesterday’s price action hinted that bullion quotes could be off and running much sooner.  To be sure, the price action yesterday just inches from ground zero was relatively timid, with small gains driving the markets.  However, that was to be expected, given the ferocity of the previous day’s plunge. It would have scared hell out of many investors, turning them cautious for the time being. But perhaps not for long. What was most encouraging about yesterday’s rally was its calmness, with relatively few of the whoops, feints and dives that characterize nervous markets. In fact, bulls made their ascent the way an experienced rock climber would scale an imposing cliff – i.e., one secure handhold/foothold at a time.

From a technical standpoint, the chart above shows what Comex May Silver must do before we assume that the trauma from Wednesday’s shock-and-awe selloff  has mostly worn off. If you happen to trade the metals, we’d recommend setting an alert a tick above the highlighted peak at 36.185; for that is where bulls will once again have the bad guys on the run.  The peak may not look like much – in the parlance of our proprietary Hidden Pivot Method, it is known as a “peak along the wall” — but it can be quite useful for purposes of gauging the determination and confidence of buyers. And if they’ve got the guts we think they’ve got, they should be able to push the futures through the resistance today or perhaps Sunday night with little or no evidence of deflection.  [Follow the action from ringside with a free trial subscription to Rick’s Picks]

Shades of ‘Easy Al’

In effect, they would be saying they don’t give a rat’s ass about “Helicopter Ben” Bernanke’s testimony before Congress the other day. No one is quite sure what the Fed Chairman said, let alone what he meant.  But you can hardly blame the guy for using “Easy Al” Greenspan’s tactic of speaking meaningless drivel when the goal is to obfuscate the ugly, inescapable truth that the global financial system is headed for collapse. Wall Street probably cares less about this than you might think, since its denizens are wont to assume that any spectacular move in the markets, be it up or down, represents opportunity.  The hubris of this line of thinking was nicely described by one Robert Mockan, posting at the web site of our friend Max Keiser yesterday in response to our commentary.  Mockan noticed something that had caught our attention as well – that with currency and bullion futures in a state of hysteria on Wednesday, the stock market barely budged.  “The market moved a little,” wrote Mockan, “but not nearly what it should have if there was anything legitimate happening. All the USD base forex currency pairs crashed. And the manipulation was very well executed. Positive feedback was increased and we saw large percentage losses in everything that traders had positions open. Insiders knew the score and they raked it in.”  As they probably did.  Or didn’t you know that it’s a rigged game?

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  • Terry S March 2, 2012, 6:32 pm

    Cam – No (again, wrong). Gary – Yes, it’ll shine next year & the year after. Love reading you characters (-:

    • Cam Fitzgerald March 2, 2012, 8:15 pm

      Oh look, the dollar is soaring. How weird is that Terry? Like I said, lets compare notes at the end of the month. I make no other prediction today.

  • John Jay March 2, 2012, 4:20 pm

    Just read a funny comment on ZH.
    Since so many hedge funds have AAPL as a core holding, when is AAPL going to start charging 2/20 for the privilege of owning AAPL stock?
    That’s a good question!

  • gary leibowitz March 2, 2012, 3:58 pm

    Why all this talk of manipulation at a time when gold is having a spectacular run. It, like stocks, are in a perfect scenario for future growth.

    The dollar should continue it’s slide this year, the fed is determined to keep interst at a negative rate, and the EU and China will not be a cause for any further inflation.

    As for the stock market it is not in any way overvalued based on current P/E and future expectations.

    The weak dollar will eventually cause havoc with rising commodity prices, but that will take some time to become a problem.

    You talk about gold and in the same breath a disasterous economy. I personally do not believe golds run up is becuase of an impending equities callapse. It most likely has more to do with a weak dollar, potential inflation, and scarcity of investment choices. In fact, if the markets do hold up this year the odds of an equities crash next year is very high. It is also a good bet that deflation will hit hard. In that scenario do you really think gold will shine next year?

    • SD1 March 3, 2012, 3:22 am

      Good points, Gary, but manipulation is always the flavour of the day when the markets and gold don’t do what “people” expect (those who hate everything but gold and encourage us to stock up on guns and ammo so we can shoot our fellow man when they come to rob us of our gold and groceries), and far too many people expect the markets to crash and gold to hit 10 k an ounce. I wasn’t expecting the drop in gold, admittedly, and it was likely manipulation, but it wasn’t just Bernanke and the US behind it. There was plenty of help … and it didn’t come from this side of the hemisphere.

  • Dale March 2, 2012, 1:39 pm

    Alf Field analyzed the the 6% decline in Elliott Wave terms in this well presented essay. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/field030112pv.html
    If 1686 was in fact the bottom, the next leg (iii) should extend to 1 – 1.5x the first (i) leg. That would target 1955 to 2089.5 before the next (roughly 6%) correction.

  • Seawolf March 2, 2012, 1:12 pm

    Here is an academic study which purports to show that given enough money any market can be manipulated.
    http://necsi.edu/research/economics/bearraid.pdf

    Interestingly only the gold and silver markets were affected on Wednesday and both experienced a 38.2% fibonacci retracement.

  • Cam Fitzgerald March 2, 2012, 10:55 am

    You do realize I am just trying to create a little theatre and drama here, right? Is everyone asleep tonight? Where are the regulars? Maybe its time we talked about Canadian real estate for a change. Lots of action on that front and it does seem the top is finally in……..

    Tomorrow is another day. Lots to say if anyone is curious.

    • BigTom March 2, 2012, 9:24 pm

      Cam – check out Ireland realestate. A spectacular 56 room beautiful hotel on the beach $850,000….
      http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/03/02/10560526-spectacular-irish-hotel-massive-discount-price

    • Cam Fitzgerald March 3, 2012, 7:59 am

      Wow. Thanks Tom. That is pretty incredible. We have 2 bedroom homes with wet basements and moldy moss covered roofs in Vancouver that cost more than that. A lot more actually.

      And some people there still insist real estate always goes up.

      Looks like the joke will be on them as the market crests and finally rolls over. The bubble is bursting. I have to wonder about all the poor saps who bought a “tear down” to speculate and build on. Who would want to be stuck holding a rotten old house on a multimillion dollar property and suddenly be underwater.

      Like they might rent it out? It is too crazy there for words.

    • mario cavolo March 3, 2012, 4:50 pm

      I just got a re broker,s email for a north phoenix there’s a reasonable 21 unit apt building 80% occupied going for 650,000…that,s 30k per unit!!!

    • Cam Fitzgerald March 5, 2012, 9:20 am

      I have been seeing similar ratios Mario. Better than those even. It is cheaper to buy than rent all over the US now. Stupid cheap in some cases. But nobody wants to hear this. If homes and rental investments catch on again the gold bubble is dead in the water (glub, glub, glub). Real estate need only appeal as an investment class that offers better than average returns and nobody will bother with precious metals investments anymore. I have charts and graphs that prove it beyond a shadow of a doubt but this site is not one to welcome those ideas so I don’t generally bother. So let em go down with the market for all I care. They are mostly extremist anyway and deserve their sorry fate. They can marry their investments too while they are at it and learn from history the hard way….. (after the fact).

  • Cam Fitzgerald March 2, 2012, 10:50 am

    Just the usual bounce off a nasty drop is all. Gold will fall through the coming days despite signs that day trading action and some majors took advantage of a flash-crash and jumped back in for some easy bucks. Nothing to write home about anyway and so I am willing to bide my time and wait. Gold is headed back to 1525 as I see it. Lets compare notes at the end of the month. Maybe I will eat my words if you are right Ackerman (but you are wrong).

  • harry March 2, 2012, 7:33 am

    John Jay: Futures or spot? And how did you derive your targets? I’m going to post a couple of things in the chat room. Take a look, in case you’re a subscriber. If not, why not?

    • John Jay March 2, 2012, 3:46 pm

      Harry,
      I was talking about Yen futures. I strictly use multiple moving averages on the CME e-quotes platform. It has more features than I could ever use, but I keep it simple. On a large monitor you can create endless pages of charts for multiple time periods and multiple contracts. Actually I have been on a trading vacation for a while but I still follow the markets everyday because I love trying to predict what is going to happen. On the freeway I am constantly guessing what driver will do something stupid, or if that guy flying up behind me is going to pass or start flashing his lights and sit on my bumper.
      I especially enjoy watching the DC gang spin their machinations against us. Inflation is contained, housing is stable, we want a strong dollar, Iran is a military super power, JPM/GS etc. broke no laws.
      It is all quite a show!

  • John Jay March 2, 2012, 7:04 am

    Let’s see if the Yen holds 1.2256 overnight. If not, then the intrepid samurais at the JCB may test 1.2181 next.
    February was the biggest straight down drop for the Yen since December of 2009 I believe. And their balance of trade went negative recently, didn’t it? Ah, currency wars and the race to the bottom!