March 2012

Judging from the way Newmont plummeted through the 'p' support of the bearish pattern shown, more weakness to at least 51.21, its 'D' sibling, appears likely. This could represent an opportunity for us in the form of a potentially low-risk entry point for a long-term position.  Accordingly, if and when Newmont  gets within 7 cents of the target, look to buy four June 52.5 calls for the best price possible. _______ UPDATE:  Newmont is in rally mode right now, so we'll set the trade aside for the time being.

A day of navel-gazing on Wall Street brought no changes in my immediate outlook for bullion and index futures.  Shortly before 11 p.m. EDT, those who control the markets were threatening more of the same. Unless the initial jobless claims report produces a surprise, it could be another yawner.

Our by-now bleary-eyed focus remains on two bearish correction targets that lie, respectively, at 1623 and 1588. Alternatively, you can set your snooze alarm for 1673.00, since a rally touching that price is where bulls would register a pulse on the lesser charts. (Note: More subtly, but less reliably, you could use 1665.70 for the same purpose.)

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz. We're still fixing to short 1412.75 via camouflage, assuming the futures ever get there.  As noted here earlier, traders should start looking for a tradable downturn if and when the futures touch 1410.50, and to initiate the trade on the first downtrending ‘X’ that meets our established criteria. If there’s an obvious fill (and corroboration thereof in the chat room), I’ll establish a tracking position for your further guidance.

[Spring has sprung, the daffodils are blooming even here in Boulder, and meteorologists are saying that Punxsutawney Phil may have erred last month when he saw his shadow. If you’ve failed to notice all of this because the churlish tedium of Wall Street has occupied your days, then perhaps it’s time for a getaway. Consider the benefits thereof, described below. I have previously run this excerpt from Thomas Mann’s The Magic Mountain because it holds an epiphany concerning the way in which we experience, and later recall, the passage of time.  My very favorite selection from one of Western Civilization's greatest novels,  it can be found in the “Excursus on the Sense of Time” chapter. The translation is by H.T. Lowe-Porter. RA] “There is, after all, something peculiar about the process of habituating oneself in a new place, the often laborious fitting in and getting used, which one undertakes for its own sake, and of set purpose to break it all off as soon as it is complete, or not long thereafter, and to return to one's former state. It is an interval, an interlude, inserted, with the object of recreation, into the tenor of life's main concerns; its purpose the relief of the organism, which is perpetually busy at its task of self-renewal, and which was in danger, almost in process, of being vitiated, slowed down, relaxed by the bald monotony of its daily course. But what then is the cause of this relaxation, this slowing-down that takes place when one does the same thing for too long at a time? It is not so much physical or mental fatigue or exhaustion, for if that were the case, then complete rest would be the best restorative.  It is rather something psychical; it means that the perception of time tends,

Shortly after midnight EDT, April Gold was tracing out a modest but promising bullish impulse leg on the  30-minute chart.  I've shown this in the chart accompanying today's GCJ12 tout, since it could yield 'gold' for night owls.  There are a couple of caveats, however, including the fact that May Silver has failed so far to generate a similarly bullish signal.

Bearish correction targets at 1623 and 1588 still beckon, but we shouldn't ignore the small encouragement of a bullish impulse leg that was created by a modest upthrust late Tuesday night. It is shown in the accompanying chart, and although the pattern has already triggered a false entry signal at 1655.00, another that would follow a second point  'C'  in the making is reason enough for night owls to pay heed. _______ UPDATE (9:35 a.m. EDT): Entering at the second 'X' would in fact have produced a profitable trade to within 0.90 of a 1660.00 target. A somewhat larger, easily tradable  uptrend that began yesterday from 1641.20 at 8:30 a.m. also narrowly failed to reached its target, 1661.20, foretelling the pooch-screwing, feeble price action that is continuing as of this moment.

I'm no longer recommending a tightly stopped short from 1412.50, since it is tempting fate to try it ahead of housing data that is all but certain to provide DaBoyz with short-squeeze ammo.  However, we can still attempt to get short via 'camouflage' as suggested here earlier. Traders should start looking for a tradable downturn if and when the futures touch 1410.50, and to initiate the trade on the first downtrending 'X' that meets our established criteria. If there's an obvious fill (and corroboration thereof in the chat room), I'll establish a tracking position for your further guidance. [Click here for details concerning our upcoming webinar on 'camouflage trading' and the Hidden Pivot Method.]

For reasons gone into during yesterday's impromptu webinar, we'll need to wait for the right opportunity even if it means missing a trade.  Two factors are working against hunting for camouflage right now: 1) the stock has yet to achieve the higher of two downside Hidden Pivot targets; and 2) yesterday's selloff was bearishly impulsive on the hourly chart, having surpassed the look-to-the-lefter shown at 26.44 (12/30).