November 2012

Two benchmarks not far above are likely to test buyers' enthusiasm.  The first, at 1763.00, is not in doubt as a minimum upside objective because of the ease with which bulls shredded its 1733.30 midpoint sibling. The futures will have to punch through the higher number, however, and decisively so, to be deemed fit for a further push to 1771.40.  Camouflageurs should call up a more extended version of the chart to acquaint themselves with the look-to-the-left peak at 1758.40 created on October 12, since a small pullback from just above it could create an absolutely perfect spot to get long if you haven't yet done so by then.  It’s easier than you might imagine to out-forecast gurus who do it for a living. Click here for a free trial subscription that can start you on the road to making your own trading and investment decisions.

After exiting a short position last week at 1388.25 for a theoretical gain of $4600, we are once again disinterested observers.  There's not much to get  excited about at the moment, but if you're bored, try shorting the 1413.50 target of the pattern shown with a three-tick stop-loss. The only reason I'm suggesting it is that the three coordinates used to calculate the target are all single-bar. However, this gambit is worth only a one-contract position.

A short position we’d initiated two weeks earlier in the E-Mini S&Ps had gotten stopped out this morning, producing a $4600 gain for anyone who traded as instructed. Although there were good technical reasons to infer that the stock market’s weakness would resume after Thanksgiving, if the rebound in Apple continues, it could conceivably turn the broad averages sharply higher as the new year begins.

Odds that stocks are in a bear market increased with last week's breach of a second 'external' low (labeled #3) on the weekly chart. As you can see (inset), the bearish impulse leg begun on November 5 from 13662 has now exceeded two 'externals' and a single 'internal', raising the imputed force of the move significantly. (Recall that to qualify as impulsive, a trend leg must exceed at least one internal and one external prior low or high.)  It's easier than you might imagine to out-forecast gurus who do it for a living. Click here for a free trial subscription that can start you on the road to making your own trading and investment decisions.

If you're still short, stick to the 1388.25 stop-loss. The purpose of using a stop-loss based on the creation of a bullish impulse leg is to avoid getting ejected from a trade merely because DaBoyz have elected to "run the stops."  So far, this has kept us in the trade, although my strong hunch is that seasonality over the remainder of the week will suffice to push this vehicle above 1388.00.  If so, it won't be such a bad thing, since anyone who followed my advice precisely will come away with a $4600 gain on a trade that risked, theoretically, just three ticks on entry.

I'll be in the chat room from time to time and may even convene an impromptu trading session before the week is out, but today's touts and commentary will be the last until Monday so that I can enjoy an extended stretch of family time. Until then, let me wish you all a bountiful Thanksgiving and a most relaxing holiday weekend.

Far from the world of leveraged finance and esoteric debt instruments, in the rugged hills of Tamworth, New Hampshire, is Hank Letarte’s White Gates Farm. It is a marvel of efficiency that serves to remind us city-folk of how a healthy, vibrant economy is supposed to work. Nothing is wasted at White Gates. The fuel that powers Letarte’s tractors and enriches his soil is homemade with ingredients scavenged from local providers. He uses cooking oil from restaurants to make diesel fuel. To warm greenhouses so that tomatoes fatten more quickly, Letarte extracts BTUs from a 15-foot-high pile of mulch. Coffee grounds from Dunkin' Donuts produce compost with a nice twist: the bears don’t care for it. A small plow has been fashioned from scrap metal salvaged from a heap of Army surplus. While visiting friends in Chocorua, New Hampshire, your editor got a four-star tour of White Gates Farm from Letarte, whose pork sausage is legendary at the local farmer’s market. The photos below show how very resourceful he must be in order to prosper.  “It’s a lousy way to make a living” Letarte confides, “but a great way to live.” *** Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and option trading, and even experts can, and sometimes do, lose their proverbial shirts.  Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at

Today's trading tout for Comex Gold, as well as an update in GORO, reflect the encouraging signs of strength we saw yesterday in the precious metals sector.  Both of these vehicles, as well as numerous other bullion plays, looked poised to take out Hidden Pivot resistance not far above

As noted here earlier, bulls will need to push above 1755.00, sooner the better, to regain the offensive.  Watch for signs of resistance near 1748.00, a midpoint pivot shown in the chart, since an easy move through it would telegraph further upside to the more crucial threshold at 1755.00.