December 2012

Google pulled back yesterday after achieving a high at 705.89 that easily exceeded the 700.00 target I'd advertised when the stock was $30 lower.  This was a precise Hidden Pivot, and so the overshoot will have bullish implications going forward.  The chart shows how things might play out in order to generate a bullish 'x' entry signal.  If and when it comes -- and this seems very likely, given the decisive nature of the impulse leg -- 'camo' traders will want to be looking for their entry opportunity on the 3-minute chart.  ______ UPDATE (December 10, 2:17 a.m. EST):  The trade set-up detailed earlier has produced an entry signal at 694.30 (see refreshed chart), but the subsequent 12-point decline makes clear why we should always look for opportunities on the one-minute chart rather than the "daily" when trading a $700 stock. GOOG will remain on a bull signal nonetheless, unless the point 'C' low at 682.33 is exceeded to the downside. Please note, however, that the 'external' peak one might have used to get long via camouflage on Friday has been spent. It lies at 684.52 (3:08 p.m. EST), and the A-B impulse leg that exceeded it produced a winning trade with two single-bar coordinates. _______ UPDATE (December 11, 2:26 a.m. EST):  With no 'camo' handholds to be found even on the 15-minute chart, we'll sit back and enjoy the show for the moment.  However, if GOOG falls hard today, the 673.00 downside target shown in the refreshed chart can serve as a minimum price objective as well as a place to attempt bottom-fishing with a tight stop or 'camouflage'.

February crude looks ever so faintly impulsive, and it garnered a comment or two in the chat room, so here's a technical look fwiw. The pale green arrow represents a prospective impulse leg -- a weak one, to be sure, since the second peak it exceeded is not a true 'external'. Nevertheless, camo traders can start looking on the 3-minute chart for a way to board, since even a punk impulse leg can sometimes  generate enough thrust to get the canny trader to a profit-taking opportunity. ______ UPDATE (December 10, 2:27 a.m. EST): Bor-ing.  We'll set this one aside, since there are ten zillion other vehicles we could be trading.

It is my recollection of the way stocks exploded from the abject depths of tiredness, tedium and despair in August 1982 that has prompted me to suggest a bottom-fishing number in Newmont Mining. The stock seems every bit as tired as the market was then, so why not?  We are risking just $14 theoretical on the trade, so even relative novices can play.  Click here if you don't subscribe but would like a peek at his one.

A casual glance at Newmont's chart will tell you the stock is headed lower, although it could conceivably surprise by reversing from the 45.26 midpoint shown.  Lest we get caught napping if the stocks turns when "no one" expects it, let's bid 45.28, stop 45.21, for 200 shares.  Please note that any slippage beneath the stop would augur more of the same over the near term, down to as low as 42.72. ________ UPDATE (10:57 a.m. EST): No surprise this time. The stock opened on a gap well below 45.26, presumably bound for 42.72, and so we did nothing. (Although, using some direct access platforms,  it's possible that a buy order and sell-stop would have been executed simultaneously at 44.90, the opening price).

How much lower?  The junior miners have been sliding since mid-September and now look primed to dive anew.  If buyers are going to save the day, they'll have an opportunity at 20.96, the Hidden Pivot midpoint support shown.  If it's breached by more than a few pennies, though, we should brace for more downside over the near term to as low as 19.36, its 'D' sibling. That would represent an 8.8% fall from current levels within a bear market that has already seen lows as low as May's 17.37. _______ UPDATE (11:00 a.m. EST): GDXJ has traded as low as 20.88 this morning. Although that's just eight cents beneath our minimum downside target, it's probably enough to doom the stock to further slippage to at least 19.36.

The topic headlined above is currently being debated on Capitol Hill, pushed by 'Little Timmy' Geithner and either ignorantly or duplicitously reported on by the usual apparatchiks: The New York Times, Bloomberg News, The Washington Post, L.A. Times et al.  Lest Obama's loyal minions embarrass themselves by reflexively supporting this nitwit idea like so many others they've embraced in the past, here's something for them to ponder from The Privateer, one of my very favorite reads.  Editor Bill Buckler drops a well deserved turd in the punch bowl with this trenchant and succinct analysis: "If the US Dollar was not the world’s reserve currency and U.S. Treasury IOUs were not the world’s preferred holding of reserves behind their own currencies and financial systems, the Treasury’s debt limit would have been done away with a long time ago. But the US Dollar IS the world’s reserve currency so the debt of the US government IS the underpinnings of the global financial system. That being the case, the system stands or falls on the continuing perception that Treasury debt paper is a viable form of 'reserve' and that the debt of the US government will NEVER become 'unsustainable'.  An announcement by the US government that it was getting rid of any 'limits' to its debt-generating capacity would put that perception at risk - quite possibly at grave risk. "That is the reason why the debt limit remains - even though it has not been an impediment to ever increasing Teasury indebtedness for well over half a century. It is easy to laugh at the seeming absurdity of a Treasury 'debt limit' and many people do. Take it away, however, and the fiction that sovereign debt is 'sustainable' - let alone any 'confidence' in its eventual repayment - would be MUCH harder to

[The following was posted to the Rick’s Picks forum a while back, but I’m republishing it here because it makes some interesting points that deserve a wider audience. The author goes by the handle ‘Buster,’ and his argument is directed at another forum regular, Gary, who reflexively plays the role of Mr. Sunshine no matter how ugly the news or bearish the facts. RA] The government is not really trying to get the economy moving, at least not the real one. Government is trying to perpetuate a debt money system for the benefit of the relative few who gain from it long term. Since when has evicting millions of families after handing their creditors billions had a ‘real’ positive economic effect? I mean, what ‘real’ productive benefit have these people added to the economy other than the possible turnover of their homes to yet more sharks? Yes, this economic activity may add some numbers to GDP, but so would nuking NYC and rebuilding it again. Allowing millions of people to die from cancer needlessly is great for the drug business, too, for that matter, and their stock price, no doubt. Not so good for human beings and the real prosperity of society in reality, though. If the aim was really to get the economy moving, I can come up with a better solution in around five seconds: The infrastructure’s falling to bits everywhere. Why didn’t government just spend the trillions on rebuilding it, thus providing millions of jobs and wages to spend, and preventing millions of bankruptcies, too, with the opportunity for ordinary people to keep their debt payments up? America is rich in natural resources, so nearly all the spending would have been internal, so no real problem there. Better still, why doesn’t government print its own debt-free money

I've included a tout for March Silver in today's list in response to a chat-room request. It's been a while since we've looked at this vehicle, but as you'll be able to surmise for yourself, although there is reason for a little optimism right now, excitement is not in the immediate picture.

Bullion has been in a tedious dirge for too long, but you didn't subscribe to Rick's Picks just to have me sugar-coat the forecast for you, right?  Under the circumstances, modest encouragement is about all I can offer at the moment in the form of the green impulse leg I've highlighted in the chart. It recently gave way to a bearish impulse leg of lesser degree, turning the short-term picture into a "duel."  Still, the bullish leg remains the stronger of the two, and that's why we can give bulls the small benefit of the doubt for the time being.  If they can get traction today or tomorrow, the Hidden Pivot coordinates I've placed on the chart can serve to guide you.  Remember that a two-day close above 'p' would imply there's an odds-on chance that 'D' (34.71, not shown)  will be reached.  It’s easier than you might imagine to out-forecast gurus who do it for a living. Click here for a free trial.