DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:135.81)

Although I’ve drum-rolled a short in the E-Mini S&Ps, it must be noted that DIA looks unstoppable at these levels. Even so, we’ll still have a compelling target to short at 140.71, the Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown. Based on the way buyers shredded the p midpoint at 132.57, this vehicle seems extremely likely to get there, notwithstanding the stall that I’m expecting in the S&Ps right here.  If the target is achieved it would represent a 3.6% rally from current levels — in line with the last-gasp rally that I’ve said could take the E-Mini as high as 1548.25. In any case, we’ll keep 140.71 in mind as a place to short aggressively. We’ll likely do so by legging into a put spread, or perhaps a butterfly at a much lower strike. Notice as well that any progress above the 140.71 target would encounter the presumably considerable stopping power of an even larger pattern with a D target not far above it, at 141.66.  Taken together, these two clear and important Hidden Pivots suggest the long-term bull is near an end. _____ UPDATE (February 5 at 12:52 a.m. EST): The 139.89 crest of Friday’s hysterical short squeeze narrowly missed our target, although ‘camo’ traders could have initiated the short.  If you did so, please let me know in the chat room. If I hear from two or more traders, I’ll establish a tracking position. _______ UPDATE (February 12 at 1:53 p.m. EST): The Diamonds are getting close to our longstanding target at 140.71, having traded as high today as 140.21. Let’s stake out a low-risk short position by buying the June 130-March 130 puts spread a dozen times for 1.50. (Use the options that expire on the third Friday. Some traders have jumped the gun, but keep in mind that if the spread can be bought now for 1.50 with DIA trading around 140.05, it’ll be about 0.05 – 0.10 cheaper if and when the target is reached. ) As a kicker, purchase four March 137 puts for around 0.81 when DIA gets within five cents of the target.