Gold’s so far feeble bounce from Monday’s extremely oversold lows does not bode well for the short-term. However, it seems possible at least that a merely mild relapse will fully correct the 2008-11 bull market, clearing the way for a decent rally.  This is implied in the chart (see inset), which shows that a 50% retracement of the bull move would equate to $1301.  I had originally put this benchmark at $1341, but an alert chat-roomer prompted me to take a second look. The new chart reflects a more careful melding of monthly contracts and a 2008 low at $681 rather than the original $732.  Technically speaking, this could give gold a reprieve, allowing a somewhat lower low without seriously breaching what is ostensibly a major support.  Were it to fail, however, a further fall to the 0.618 Fibonacci support would imply a bottom at $1146, rather than the $1188 given here earlier.