USU13 – September T-Bond (Last:134^05)

We’ve been focused on a long-term bear-market target at 135^05, looking for any hint that the Fed is about to step in to reverse the steady price erosion in this vehicle before investors hit the panic button. A lesser but still significant target at 137^07 may provide clues concerning the near-  to intermediate-term, however, as well as a place to attempt bottom-fishing. This target is quite clear and has already been confirmed by precise price action at the ‘p’ midpoint, so you could conceivably step in with a bid at 135^06 and a stop-loss as tight as three ticks. However, and as always, camouflage will be the preferred entry tactic. Regardless of whether you trade the target, you should expect it to work precisely as a minimum downside objective. _______ UPDATE (June 19, 11:20 p.m. EDT): The futures have kissed the 137^07 target noted above, setting up a possible bottom-fishing opportunity for ‘camo’ traders. I’d suggest looking for your opportunity on charts of 15-minute degree or less. _______ UPDATE (June 20, 9:06 a.m. EDT):  Wow, I’m impressed.  The 137^07 support held for all of three hours before a steep plunge turned it into resistance. The selloff came within a little more than half-a-point of the longstanding, 135^05 target noted above — a major bear market objective, as far as I’m concerned.  Because it comes from a continuous (i.e., blended) chart, however, it is unlikely to prove precisely reliable. To winnow down the possibilities of where an important low is likely to occur, I’ll use the September contract, as before, but with a new point C low revised to reflect recent price action. This yields an attractive target at 134^15, a Hidden Pivot that should provide a decent foothold for camouflageurs. _______ UPDATE (July 1, 3:06 a.m. EDT):  Important Hidden Pivots are generating almost no bounce, attesting to the power of this nascent bear market. We’ll have a better idea of the size of pent-up selling pressure when we’ve seen how the futures react with a midpoint support similar to the hypothetical one shown._______ UPDATE (July 15, 12:01 a.m. EDT): T-Bond futures ground their way higher last week, but the rally was unpersuasive. Moreover, it came from a low that had exceeded the midpoint support shown (see inset, a fresh chart)  by enough that the D target at 129^03 is still a good bet.