GCQ13 – August Gold (Last:1292.60)

Most unusual: Gold , index futures AND the U.S. dollar were all trading moderately higher early Monday morning. Are traders perhaps unclear on the concept (whatever it might be)?  In any event, it’s a good time to look at gold’s chart in isolation from the seemingly anomalous. Accordingly, and mechanically speaking, the August contract wants to ascend to at least 1264.10 (or perhaps to 1266.30, based on a slightly lower ‘A’) over the very near-term. Notice how buyers pushed it well past the ‘p’ midpoint within the last few minutes. That make a follow-through to the target all but certain. It would also leave the futures well shy of the 1301.80 print required to generate a no-doubt-about-it bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. Still, higher is better than lower, and it will at least earn bulls the benefit of the doubt, assuming price can hold aloft overnight and into the start of the regular session. _______ UPDATE (11:40 a.m. EDT): The point ‘C’ low of the rally pattern has been violated, negating the target. More significant is that the top of today’s rally failed, in chicken-hearted fashion, to take out last Wednesday’s 1259.30 peak. It did take out a slightly lower peak a couple of bars to the right of it, but the pullback that followed couldn’t even generate a profitable ‘camo’ trade of leastmost degree. This feeble action has bearish implications for the moment, although it’s nothing that a thrust exceeding 1279.00 couldn’t cure. A print at 1279.10 would generate a bullish impulse leg on the 30-minute chart. _______ UPDATE (July 10, 11:45 a.m.): Today’s upthrust has put August Gold back on track for a run-up to at least 1287.90. The move is not only bullishly impulsive on the hourly chart, it appears to have converted the 1247.40 midpoint resistance into support. _______ UPDATE (July 11, 2:41 a.m. EDT): Tonight’s so-far $50 effusion — who cares what has caused it! — has surpassed the 1287.90 target flagged above by nearly $10, bulldozing some ‘external’ peaks in the process.  Price action from this point forward could be volatile, if not to say violent, but this should be viewed by the patient camouflageur as an opportunity rather than a threat. Stick with the one-minute chart, be very picky about which ABC you jump on and everything will turn out all right.