ATUSF – Altius Minerals (Last:14.2439)

At the Mining & Minerals Conference that I attended last week in San Francisco, I found Altius still to be high on the list of many savvy investors. With $130 million cash in reserve and a royalty stream that nicely offsets fixed outlays of $5 million per year, the company is well positioned to ride out whatever further pain bullion’s bear market inflicts on investors.  Altius is waist-deep in iron ore investments these days, causing some to remark that bullion is no longer much of a concern to the company. This is an exaggeration, but investors should be happy in any case that the firm is doing what it takes to survive gold’s fall from $1900 to a recent $1220. From a technical standpoint, the stock has been in a holding pattern centered on a $9-$11 range for more than three years. The weekly chart shows ‘dueling impulse legs’, implying that the tedious battle between bulls and bears could continue for yet some time, perhaps with an exhaustion skew down to $8 or a little lower.  At that price, especially considering Altius’ enviable cash position, the stock would represent a back-up-the-truck buying opportunity. _______ UPDATE (December 31): The stock has exploded in the last week (see inset), up nearly 20% from lows made just two weeks ago. The so-far high is 11.74, but with a Hidden Pivot target at 12.24, the move may still have legs. It is already impulsive, so the pullback of the last several days should be regarded as a buying opportunity. _______UPDATE (January 6, 10:22 p.m. EST): Today’s explosive rally has pushed the stock to a 17-month high. There are no crystal-clear patterns to allow a precise reckoning of where Altius is headed, but my guess is to at least 14.33 over the near term. A two-day close above that Hidden Pivot would imply further upside potential to as high as 19.99. _______ UPDATE (January 13, 11:03 p.m.): On the hourly chart, the stock will trip a new buy signal at 12.8511 (see inset), but I’d suggest using a chart of smaller degree to get aboard. Short-term potential is to as high as 14.6586, subject to midpoint resistance at 13.4536. The pattern is clear enough that we should regard a decisive penetration of p as a strong sign that the target will indeed be reached. _______ UPDATE (January 20, 5:36 p.m.): The stock has rocketed 15% in two days and is now within easy striking distance of the 14.6586 rally target given above. An easy move past it would strengthen the case for a further run-up to $20. _______ UPDATE (February 3): Steep as the last rally was, it missed our target by 14 cents, telegraphing the weakness that was to come. The pullback to the 13.45 midpoint pivot (see inset) would ordinarily be a buying opportunity, but in this case I’d suggest doing so only via a camouflage entry signal that limits initial theoretical risk to perhaps 5 cents or less per round lot. _______ UPDATE (February 10, 10:50 p.m.):  Altius has in fact rallied sharply from within a few pennies of the midpoint support. Trader should hold 16.7715 in mind as the next important rally target. It would become an odds-on shot if and when the stock takes out the midpoint sibling at 14.6320 (my minimum upside projection for the near term.