SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:24.92)

Silver Wheaton has taken quite a leap since New Year’s Eve, up ten percent in just four sessions. However, yesterday’s attempt to extend the winning streak fell short of our requirement that a rally ‘refresh’ the bullish energy of the hourly chart with each new upthrust in order to stay strong. That would have required a push above the distinctive ‘external’ peak at 21.82 that I’ve highlighted (see inset). In the actual event, buyers quit at 21.73, nine cents shy of the threshold. My hunch is that this is a pause rather than the start of a serious relapse. In any event, if the stock should poke a few pennies above 21.82 and then pull back in b-c fashion, traders should look to enter on the next leg up. ______ UPDATE (January 12, 10:36 p.m. EST):  Friday’s rally off the low of a three-day pullback yielded an entry signal at 20.85 on the daily chart, where A=19.67 on 12/31. This means that any ABC-based entry opportunity you can identify on the lesser charts is a ‘go’, especially if you can pare the entry risk (i.e, the differential between ‘x’ and ‘C’) to perhaps eight  cents or less per round lot on the lesser charts. The immediate price target is 22.39, a Hidden Pivot that should be considered an even-odds bet at worst, given that p=21.36 has already been exceeded by 5 cents (see inset, a new chart). _______ UPDATE (January 17, 10:25 a.m. EST): This morning’s 9-cent overshoot of our ancient rally target at 22.39 is sufficiently huge that we can be faintly encouraged by it. On the other hand, notice that today’s high has miserably failed — at least so far — to take on November’s two ‘external’ peaks. Bottom line: a 22.71 print by Tuesday would do wonders for the bullish case. _______ UPDATE (January 22, 11:25 p.m.): The rally actually got as high as 22.77, but the speed with which the stock has detumesced since leaves me feeling less than confident. Now, if the selloff were to exceed 21.87 to the downside, that would technically make SLW a short on the lesser charts, if not yet on the daily. _______ UPDATE (January 23, 10:13 p.m.):  The stock has in fact refreshed the bullish energy of the hourly chart with each of the last several thrusts, pushing above a succession of prior ‘external’ peaks. I’ll suggest using the 23.52 target shown as a minimum upside objective for the near term. ‘Camouflage’ entries are best attempted just above the red line (aka ‘p’). _______ UPDATE (February 3): The rally died after failing by 43 cents to achieve our target. The action since has been mildly bearish, although the bull trend from late December’s lows still looks healthy. If Silver Wheaton were to catch fire today or tomorrow, immediate potential would be to 22.64, or perhaps to 24.02 if any higher. _______UPDATE (February 10, 10:42 p.m.): Today’s moon shot failed by 28 cents to reach the 24.02 target, but because it remains unfilled, there is an implied buying opportunity on any pullback. You’ll need to monitor this closely intraday to extrapolate a timely entry signal, but please don’t hesitate to query me for guidance in the chat room. _______ UPDATE (February 11, 10:38 a.m.):  Opportunity to board? Not hardly, since SLW opened on a gap for the second straight day. Predictive warning: There will be zero belated buying opportunities until just before the stock is ready for a brutal correction._______ UPDATE (February 19, 11:17 p.m.): And that is exactly what has happened with today’s nasty drop out of a pennant.