ESM14 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1877.25)

Traders looking for actionable advice in real time might want to consider following me on Twitter by clicking here. Anyone dialed in yesterday would have received the following tweet at 1:16 p.m. EDT:  ‘E-Mini S&P: So-far high somewhat shy of still-good 1881.25 target. Pullback to Hidden Pivot ‘sibling’ at 1870.25 is spec buy w/ tight stop.’  As you can see in the accompanying chart, the futures pulled back to exactly 1870.00 before embarking on a 9.50-point rally that could have been worth as much as $950 to anyone long just two contracts. Ordinarily I would now suggest reversing long positions and going short at the 1181.25 target, which was missed by 2.50 points. However, although the target itself remains viable, any hysterics overnight or at the opening bell could make it tricky to squeeze off the short with the very tight stop-loss that I usually advise.

Looking ahead, a decisive move today past the target would portend still more strength.  If it comes, we’ve got a 1933.25 rally target to inform our trading decisions.  As I noted here earlier, I am very wary of the possibility that a run-up to this Hidden Pivot, representing a new all-time high, would be a bull trap. We’ll want to try shorting there regardless, so stay tuned if you’re interested.