SIK14 – May Silver (Last:20.045)

Silver’s histrionics over the last three days have nearly worn me out. That said, although the May futures are in a duel between bulls and bears on the lesser charts, there was a potential buying opportunity setting up on the 15-minute chart. Specifically, you could try bottom-fishing at the 19.658 target shown, using a stop-loss as tight as 3-4 ticks for a single contract. If you use ‘camouflage to get aboard, it’s okay to step up the size. _______ UPDATE (April 1, 10:16 p.m. ET): The actual low was four ticks beneath the target and was followed by a 28-cent rally.  However, since no one in the chat room reported a fill, I’ll assume this opportunity went unexploited. _______ UPDATE (April 2, 4:26 p.m.): With today’s spike, the futures have now rallied 51 cents from the forecast low at 19.655. ______ UPDATE (April 6, 4:02 p.m.): A spike on the opening bar showed promise, since it was bullishly impulsive on the hourly chart. However, the subsequent relapse reversed the effect, creating a duel between bears and bulls. On balance, my bias will be mildly positive when the futures begin a new week Sunday night. _______ UPDATE (April 7, 11:56 p.m. ET): The tedium of the last few days is bullishly impulsive nonetheless (unlike June Gold), so look for the futures to achieve a minimum 20.060, and thence 20.345 (see inset, a new chart), if buyers can surmount the persistent weakness of the broad averages. _______UPDATE (April 11, 1:07 a.m. ET): Silver’s recent thrust has bettered the higher of the two targets given above by 5.5 cents (see inset), implying that still higher prices impend once this correction has run its course.  For trading and positioning purposes, I’d suggest using the pattern shown, with a 20.615 target. Camouflageurs take note: a print at 20.105 would trip a buy signal, and anything above 20.275 would make 20.615 an odds-on bet.