BZH – Beazer Homes (Last:19.08)

Beazer was a big winner for traders who saw the housing collapse coming in 2006 and shorted the stock with abandon. But not this time.  With mortgage re-fi’s dead and the real estate market starting to relapse, the shares of home builders have been imploding in slow motion, punctuated by numerous short-squeeze rallies that have made it nearly impossible to stay short. My prediction a decade called for a 70% drop in home values over the course of a deflationary depression that has yet to take hold. This implies not only that very hard times lie ahead, but that prices were only halfway to a bottom when the economy lifted from the depths of The Great Recession in 2009. It also implies that the supposed recovery in home prices over the last few years has been little more than a dead-cat bounce. Now, just as the collapse of home-builder shares foretold the implosion of the economy, their slow death this time is warning that a recovery that never touched the broad middle class is over.