AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:647.35)

The direction this stock takes in the days and weeks ahead is quite important, if not to say absolutely critical, since it is unlikely the broad averages will get very far without the enthusiastic leadership of such an important bellwether. For our part, with the clock ticking down on us, we exited a bullish butterfly spread that expires Friday for twice the price paid. Actually, half the position was to have been exited, which would leave traders with the remaining half effectively at no cost. Subscribers also hold thirty-two 655/660/665 butterflies expiring June 20 with a cost basis of 0.25, and although Apple’s weakness the last two days has beaten them down some, the $30 rally it would take over the next 13 sessions to increase their value as much as twentyfold is hardly implausible.  My rally target remains 660.26, but if the stock is to get off the launching pad, it’s time for it to show a little pluck.  In technical terms, that would require a pop exceeding 635.18 today or tomorrow. However, tacking another $3 onto the rally would greatly shorten the odds of a payoff on our call spreads.  Alternatively, if things don’t go the way we want them to and AAPL falls anew, the first place we might look for a rebound is from 619.91, the Hidden Pivot correction target shown in the chart. If not there, a further drop to 614.18 would become likely.  Those are both Hidden Pivot supports, and either can be bottom-fished with as tight a stop-loss as you can abide. _____ UPDATE (7:10 p.m. ET): Apple looked impressive yesterday, up $9 on a day when Dow stocks languished in negative territory for the entire session.  If my bullish forecast for the E-Mini S&Ps on Wednesday is correct, Apple should lead the charge. Continue to offer half of the June 20 spreads for twice what you paid for them. The goal is to zero out the risk of the position for the half that remains.  The spread closed yesterday on a bid/asked spread of 0.15/0.45, implying we could probably scratch it if we choose.  The spread that expires this Friday is still a longshot, but stay alert anyway, since it could come to life if Apple trades up to $650 today. ______ UPDATE (June 5, 11:48 p.m.):  The June 20 butterfly traded for 0.65 when the stock opened near $650, so exiting half the spreads on a 0.50 offer could have been accomplished without much effort.  Any reports?