NFLX – Netflix (Last:465.71)

Subscribers came away from a suggested short from 429.94 with a modest profit yesterday even though the stock spent most of the day in a ratcheting short-squeeze that eventually took out Friday’s high. I established a tracking position based on a short-stock entry confirmed by a subscriber in the chat room. In the future, however, I would strongly recommend that you use out-of-the-money puts and calls due to expire in three to five weeks, since they are easier to manage than straight-stock positions. In this case, the goal would have been to turn any puts bought near the initial high in the stock into a risk-free vertical bear spread.  This would have been relatively easy to accomplish yesterday, since the stock fell more than $5 after topping within 69 cents of the 429.94 Hidden Pivot target I’d furnished.

I am more than a little interested in shorting Netflix, of all stocks, because I consider it the most overrated and overpriced gas-bag among the high-fliers. NFLX’s streaming catalogue stinks, their movie-selecting algorithm works poorly, competition is tough in a business with few entry barriers, they are beholden to just a few broadband carriers, and their foray into the content business puts them in tough competition with the likes of HBO.

Under the circumstances, we should try to short the stock at every opportunity — i.e. at Hidden Pivot targets that promise to generate tradable price reversals. The next such target lies at 431.55, but we’ll want to steer clear of it because a print there would generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. For more-nuanced guidance in real time, tune to the chat room on Tuesday.  If you’re interested but don’t subscribe, click here for a free two-week trial. No credit card is necessary._______ UPDATE (9:45 a.m.): How very charming. The stock has opened on a breakaway gap that projects to 460.10, a marginal 2.00 above the old high. Let’s wait till it gets there before we do anything new. _______ UPDATE (July 1, 10:48 a.m. ET): Leveraging a Goldman upgrade out this morning, DaBoyz have short-squeezed the  stock $25 higher so far, exceeding the 460.10 target by a wide margin.  My intraday rally target and a good place to look for a short-term top,is 467.07. However, a big-picture target where an important top is even more likely lies at exactly 474.50. Accordingly, your short-term trading bias should be bullish, using bottom-fishing at ‘p’ retracement levels.