VXX – S&P VIX Short-Term (Last:28.74)

It may be time to bet on volatility. This vehicle’s steady decline over the last year has crushed buyers of puts and calls alike.   However, the chart suggests the trend may be about to reverse. The bear-market target at 25.43, a Hidden Pivot, sits about 16% below current levels, and there are two ways we can attempt to make money on it.  First, to play the remaining downside, I’ll suggest buying calendar puts spreads centered on the $25 strike: Buy two dozen July 25 weekly puts and short a like number of June 13 weekly puts 1:1 for an 0.08 debit. We’ll make this a day order so that I can determine whether the options are liquid enough to get us filled on a spread order. If not, we may still be able to leg it on, buying the July puts first when VXX is rallying.  Our second trade would entail bottom-fishing if and when the 25.43 target is reached. For now, however, we’ll focus on the bearish bet. _______ UPDATE (June 12, 6:45 p.m.):  VXX has taken a robust leap from a 29.90 low that lies well above my target. Ordinarily I would assume it to be a dead-cat bounce. But given the increasing loud drumbeat of scary news from the Middle East, this bounce could get legs. In any event, VXX has generated a ‘buy’ signal on the hourly chart. To get onboard, traders should use the point ‘A’ low  at 30.99 recorded yesterday. As of yet, there has been no B-C pullback. _______ UPDATE (June 19, 9:37 a.m. EDT): And a dead-cat bounce it was. VXX has resumed the downtrend with yesterday’s hellacious dive. The target remains good-as-ever. We should remain open to the possibility that the projected low will be achieved simultaneous with a major top in the Great Bull Market.