ESU14 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:1961.25)

We shouldn’t get our hopes too high that the stock market may finally be deferring to reality — i.e., to a U.S. economy that is showing real or incipient weakness everywhere it counts:  in retail sales, housing, incomes, spending at all levels of government other than Federal, etcetera. Yesterday’s seemingly sharp decline did little technical damage to the hourly chart, let alone to the daily, and sellers were showing signs of exhaustion just three bars into the session. We’ll be better able to judge their resolve when we’ve seen how the follow-through leg plays out, assuming there is one. The key idea is that robust bull trends produce corrections that do not reach their Hidden Pivot targets.  For your guidance, I’ve sketched this hypothetically in the accompanying chart.