TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:116.63)

We hold the September 21/August 8 calendar spread at the 118 strike for, effectively,  0.34 after rolling the short side of the position from August 1 calls to August 8 calls last week. We will continue to roll the spread forward each Thursday/Friday to further reduce the cost of the September 21 calls that we’ll continue to hold.  I am going to establish another, similar spread using November calls for the long side of our position, so stay tuned.  We are betting, essentially, that the 4% GDP growth claimed for Q2 is a brazen lie; and that, far from recovering strongly, the U.S. economy is actually slipping into recession. _______ UPDATE (August 8, 11:47 a.m. EDT):  The short side of the spread has been rolled to August 16 for around 0.10, according to reports in the chat room. This has further reduced our cost basis to 0.24 for sixteen September 21/August 16 calendar spreads.  The cherry on top is that TLT has turned around and started to move higher, playing to our strength. It is exactly what we had ancitipated, and it will make it increasingly lucrative for us when we short the front week every Thursday/Friday. Over time, we will hold the September calls effectively for a credit, so that if they are selling for, say, 1.10 a week or two before they expire, that will be all profit for us. Any credits we’ve added by way of selling ‘weeklies’ would be added to the 1.10. The spread is currently trading for around 0.80, implying a paper profit of $800 or so.  That is just a start, as you will see.