ESZ14 – Dec E-Mini S&P (Last:1856.00)

The short squeeze off Wednesday’s bombed-out low, which was revisited yesterday, makes as appealing a short sale as we’ve seen in a long while. The devil, however, will be in the details.  We know that in a true bear market, rallies will be so ferocious as to gut any bear who attempts to intercept the ascent of stocks prematurely or too aggressively. The rallies will also seduce bulls into believing new highs are coming, and to string along others who have losses and are hoping to reduce or even elimimate them before cashing out of their portfolios. It would seem like a tall order for Mr. Market to accomplish all of these things, but anyone who has been through a bear market knows the old boy is well up to the task. For now, we’ll focus on getting a good read on the bear.  The squeeze off Wednesday night’s heavily engineeered low has generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, and although night owls can try shorting the midpoint pivot or D target of the (tentative) pattern show, I wouldn’t suggest doing so aggressively or in any size. One contract will be plenty — just for training purposes, mind you. Be sure to use a tight stop-loss of no more than 3-5 ticks.