ESZ14 – Dec E-Mini S&P (Last:1967.50)

Since September 19, when this vehicle topped at a record-high 2014.50, there have been two failed rallies. Will this prove to be yet another? My hunch is that it will, implying that I do not expect the S&Ps to achieve a new record high.  However, the ferociousness of this short-squeeze rally argues for caution if we are going to attempt to short into it. Keep in mind as well that, were buyers to exceed the #2 peak at 1992.50, the bullish impulse leg this would create will make the December contract not only a screaming buy, but an odds-on bet to surpass the old high. Accordingly, I’ll suggest shorting 1966.50 with a 1967.25 stop-loss. The target comes from the one-minute chart, using these coordinates: a=1945.40 on Oct 3 at 8:41 a.m.; b=1960.00 at 9:06 a.m. ________ UPDATE (2:33 a.m. EDT): The futures have lurched higher early Monday morning after oscillating between 1965.50 and 1965.75 for more than four hours.  This is bizarre price action, and we ought not get in its way too aggressively. The rally projects to a minimum 1976.25, implying traders should position from the long side for the moment. Night owls can use the obscure external peak at 1970.75 recorded on 9/30 (30-minute chart) to generate an entry signal camouflage-style.