TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:118.79)

We hold the Nov 22 117/Oct 3 117 call spread 40 times @ 0.80, and although the underlying stock (ETF) is rising more steeply than we might have expected, the position is most surely going our way.  We’ll want to roll the spread up to a higher strike eventually, but not while TLT is moving steeply higher and could pull back sharply at any moment. For now, let’s stick with our game plan, rolling the spread forward on Friday by selling the October 10 117/October 3 117 calendar spread 40 times. This will effectively substitute short calls with an October 10 expiration for the Oct 3 calls we are currently short. The premium we take in will reduce the 0.80 we paid for the original spread by the amount received.  With rally targets in the 116-122 range, our spreads have been leveraging small segments of TLT’s bull market. However, the chart shows how high this vehicle could go over the short-to-intermediate-term. Longer-term charts project even higher. Notice that yesterday’s blitzkrieg rally smashed through the midpoint pivot at 117.28 as though it didn’t exist. This implies that a further rally to at least D=121.82 is all but a done deal.  Finally, here’s an important note:  Be certain you are not still short the October 3 117 calls when Friday’s session ends, since the calls will be exercised with TLT above 117. If this were to happen, you would come in Monday short at least $468,000 worth of TLT.  If in doubt, check with your broker to determine their deadline for closing out the short side of the position to avoid exercise. ________ UPDATE (October 3,  4:21 a.m. EDT):  The Oct 3 calls were still holding about 35 cents of time-premium Thursday, but it’ll evaporate on Friday, especially if TLT moves moderately higher.  You should wait till as late in the session as possible to cover the calls and roll into the Oct 10s, but be certain you do so in accordance with your broker’s deadline. ______ UPDATE (October 3, after the close): We’ll use 0.50 as a price, although subscribers reported getting as much as 0.54 for the spread. That effectively lowers our cost basis for the Nov 22 / Oct 10 calendar spread to 0.30.  Do nothing further for now. _______ UPDATE (October 7, 12:49 p.m.): The steep rise —  rampage, actually — has started to work against us. Our calendar spread (long Nov 22 117/ short Oct 10 117 x 40) leaves us effectively short 800 deltas. To remedy this, I’ll suggest an offset: buy the Dec 20 123 / Oct 24 123 calendar 20 times for 0.76. You should adjust your bid by 0.01 up or down for each 0.06 move in the underlying. Please let me know in the chat room how you’re doing with this one.  _______ UPDATE (October 9, 11:20 p.m.): There were no reports of anyone buying the offset, but in any case you should roll the existing spread today.  This will entail buying back short October 10 117 calls and shorting a like number of 117 calls expiring Oct 18.  Bid/Asked spreads at Thursday’s close were out-of-whack, so I’ll recommend holding off on the trade until I can determine Friday morning how much we might be able to get for the roll (i.e., shorting the October 18/October 10 117 calendar spread).  Depending on how TLT trades, we may even roll the spread upward by shorting a higher strike than the 117.