It’s been a while since we last looked in on ‘Doc Copper’, which has continued to grind through a bear market begun early in 2011. The price has dropped 46% over that time, but the move is still corrective relative to the bull-market low of $1.25/pound recorded at the end of 2008. What would it take to turn prices higher?  The question is important, since even the mere prospect of a full recovery from the Great Recession is certain to be telegraphed by rising copper prices.

Technically speaking, the high-grade contract would come alive on a rally touching 3.2381. If the move were to go slightly higher, exceeding the 3.2790 peak made a little less than a year ago, that would not only clinch still-higher prices, it would also hint of a strong upswing in the world economy, particularly in an otherwise moribund manufacturing sector. Thereafter, depending on how quickly the futures achieve the next threshold, a ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’ at 4.0573, we might infer an upswing strong enough, even, to float Europe’s distressed boat.

The foregoing is of course speculative, since it’s entirely possible copper prices will relapse, giving up the rest of the 54-cent gain it achieved between January and May of this year. Were that to occur, we could probably tune out the blather about the America’s nascent growth spurt, as well as the supposed likelihood of explicit tightening by the Fed.