I’m tracking a position consisting of eight Oct 21 200 – 195 puts spreads with a credit basis of 0.37, as well as 12 naked Oct 21 200 puts purchased last week for 0.25. The entire position nets out to a debit of $4, which is as much as we can lose — the cost of an ice cream cone. The maximum potential gain would be $10,000 if SPY were to fall below 195 from a current 215 before the options expire in two weeks. This is a longshot bet, but the effective, 2500-to-1 odds we are getting were too tempting to pass up. Also, SPY need fall only to 199, a 7.5% drop, for our position to start paying off at $2000 per point. Win, lose or draw, we will continue to make bets like this one, since all bull markets must end, and in particular because this one’s death is long overdue._______ UPDATE (Oct 10, 2:25 p.m. ET): Bid 0.56 for four Nov 18 200 puts, day order. (They are currently trading for 0.62 off an intraday low of 0.59.) ________ UPDATE (8:26 p.m.): Pull the bid for now. I’ve got a higher target outstanding for the E-Mini S&Ps, but I remain to be convinced that bulls have the moxie to get there soon without some timely emanations from the Fed. _______ UPDATE (Oct 11, 2:50 p.m.): Since we have so very little at risk, there’s no urgency about turning the 12 naked Oct 21 200 puts into a vertical bear spread. Even so, you should offer a dozen Oct 21 195 puts short for 0.30 against the puts we already hold, good-till-canceled. The broad averages are falling hard today, but we don’t want to make the mistake of limiting our profits when exactly what we’ve been  expecting to happen for the last seven years– i.e., the stock market’s total collapse — may finally be unfolding before our eyes. I learned exactly that lesson when I aggressively bought the seemingly disastrous close on Friday, October 16, 1987, loading up on Cray Research shares that settled at $70, down huge on the day. On Monday, October 19, the stock re-opened at $37. _______UPDATE (7:38 p.m.): Turns out that quite a few subscribers paid up — just a little — for Nov 18 200 puts on Monday, so I’ll track four of them for 0.60 in addition to our existing position.  They traded as high as 1.17 today, and some subscribers may have cashed out a few for a quick doubler. But officially I’ll recommend offering half (i.e., two) of them to close for 1.20, g-t-c. _______UPDATE (Oct 13, 6:42 p.m.): The Nov 18 200 puts opened at 1.20, doubling the acquisition price before trading as high as 1.41. For tracking purposes, I’ll assume two puts remain with a cost basis of zero. The rest of the position — i.e., the Oct 21 200-195 puts spreads — can stand with no change. They’ve got six trading days left on them, they are cheap lottery tickets, and anything could happen.