Steep Plunge Quickly Recouped Is Hallmark of a Late-Stage Bull

The hallmark of a bull market in its final throes is hellish swoons-out-of-nowhere that are quickly recouped. Let’s see if DaBoyz play it by the book this time. They pulled the rug out from under the FAGMA stocks on Friday — Facebook, Apple, Google, Microsoft and Amazon — sending them down between 2.2% and 4% in a matter of hours. Remarkably, the broad averages still managed to close at record highs, a brazen display that hints at the way the divergence will be resolved. Even so, our most important stock market bellwether, AMZN, may struggle for perhaps 2-3 days before bears let their guard down again so that stocks can be short-squeezed to new record highs for the umpteenth time. I still have a $1083 target outstanding for the stock, which topped last week almost exactly at a lesser Hidden Pivot resistance I’d noted at 1018 before rolling over. Friday’s weakness was easy to foresee; indeed, the last two headlines here atop The Morning Line were High Flyers Show Fatigue and The Yellow Flag Is Out. If AMZN turns around and makes a new record high as soon as Tuesday, a day earlier than ‘scheduled,’ bears had better scramble for cover, since the stock will be on its way to 1083, presumably dragging the entire stock market higher in its prop wash. All of this doesn’t negate the fact that AMZN’s most recent top occurred in a dangerous place — i.e., at the ‘secondary Hidden Pivot’ of a fairly important ABC pattern. According to the informal chat-room rule of ‘Matt’s Curse,’ this could prove fatal for the stock, telegraphing a drop to below the 884.49 point ‘C’ of the bullish pattern shown (see inset). We’ll let AMZN tell us what’s on its fevered mind, so stay close to the chat room if you want ringside commentary.