Last week, I published a copper chart here that could be used to justify a very bullish outlook for the stock market — for a move to as high, even, as Dow 30,000. However, my latest E-Mini S&P tout raises the possibility that stocks have already begun what could turn out to be the worst bear market in history. Lest I be accused of schizophrenia and find myself reviled by lurkers who judge the quality of my work by the headlines atop the free forecasts they receive from me, let me say that I have never pretended to own a crystal ball. In fact, and as we all know, no one, not even the wisest guru on the planet, knows for sure whether the bull market will continue for another five years, or ten years, or in fact ended with the August 7 high.
My gut feeling is that if stocks have not already topped, they are about to — in a big way. Even so, I will continue to pay close attention to technical signs, especially on the lesser charts; for it is there that a bear market would first become apparent. Indeed, every bear market in history has begun with a downtrending abcd pattern on the one-minute bar chart. I am watching for this now, since August’s weakness has proceeded from a high that precisely matched an important rally target I’d flagged for subscribers. But I am also watching AAPL closely, since it is a key market bellwether that appears to have $8 of upside before it reaches a major Hidden Pivot target at 168.46. That target will have been more than four years in coming if it is achieved, and it looks to me like a great place to get short. I am encouraged to think my forecast could be a bullseye, since a similar forecast for AMZN published in June nailed the stock’s all-time high at 1083.31 to the exact penny seen weeks later. AMZN has since fallen as low as $941, a 13% plunge, raising the possibility that its bull market top is in, even if AAPL’s is not. If you want to stay closely apprised, consider subscribing to Rick’s Picks. Just click here for an instant, free two-week trial