A few days ago I provided precise benchmarks for judging whether the Dow Average is about to embark on a thousand-point rally.  Today I present an  alternative scenario, one in which the Dow could fall by as much as 3000 points. This would be the equivalent to a drop of more than 300 points in the S&P 500, to around 2400.  My gut feeling is bearish, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the broad averages climb first to new record highs, the better for Mr. Market to set the hook in a way that bulls and bears alike get demolished.  Whatever happens, I will continue to monitor the hourly charts of several market bellwethers, since it is impossible for the big trend to reverse without the change being signaled initially on charts of lesser degree.