Ricks Picks

What It Would Take to Exhaust Sellers


Thursday’s carnage will not likely be the end of it, unfortunately. The S&Ps and the Industrial Average both demolished key supports in the final hour, all but guaranteeing more selling in the day(s) ahead. In my touts for each (see below), I’ve provided precise benchmarks so that you can gauge not only the strength of the selling, but the likelihood that it will continue. Generally speaking, when a Hidden Pivot support is decisively breached, it implies that the next, usually of greater degree, will be reached.  The good news is that a further, quick 1100-point drop in the Dow, to around 22734, would probably exhaust sellers and provide the sort of climactic low on which a solid base for the next rally could be built.

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John Jay February 9, 2018, 11:21 am

Of course, hindsight is 20/20 but in looking at daily charts, the NKE had its engulfing bar down on 1-24, and the YM had it’s engulfing daily bar down on 1-30. Might be useful in the future. There is very likely a backstory on this, but that is out of my depth. I will have to watch and see if the NKE turns up a week before the YM.

none February 9, 2018, 9:56 am

The 9:300 EST USA opening of INDU and SPX has a mixed message.

The INDU if it where to have a open ‘or’ close within Mondays trading range (which it did ‘open’ within it) would suggest that the next leg lower if this was to take place may need another move higher within Mondays trading range.

The SPX though ‘did not open’ within its Mondays trading range, and suggests that a continuation of the near ‘recent’ trend is still in force suggesting that an acceleration could be upon the near term trend in ‘hours’. This would have to be confirm by both indexes closing under the Monday’s trading low point.

Market watching notes:

1) Touching VIX 50 level at any time.

2) Making note, that other inverse markets have not move and or gain momentum towards leveraged VIX naked positioning busted trend in play.

Have a great weekend Rick!

John Jay February 8, 2018, 11:17 pm

Some pretty wild swings in YM at the end of the day!
I was watching retracements from fast plunges near the end of the day on a 5 second chart, and there was one retracement of 100 YM points in 54 seconds before it plunged again!
That was a $500 move in less than a minute!
Moving against the primary downtrend!
Damn, those programs move fast!
CL and NG over at the NYMEX are much more civilized these days!
I can remember guys saying back in the day, a $500 stop on a big S+P contract was OK to use. Back before ES and program trading!
Ah, the Good Old Days, gone, but not forgotten!

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