Ricks Picks

Violent Swings Just a Warm-up for What’s Coming


Easy come, easy go. AMZN stunned traders with a 135-point gain Thursday from the bombed-out depths of Wednesday’s selloff. Then, after the close, the stock reversed steeply, shedding 180 points and sucking tens of billions of dollars from stock markets in the U.S. and around the world in mere minutes. A disappointing forecast for the holiday season triggered the avalanche, which has abated somewhat this evening, although presumably not for long. Analysts were left guessing about the reasons for the downbeat forecast, but higher pay for warehouse workers was cited by some. Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) also missed estimates, crashing the stock 118 points, or 11 %, at the same time. The devastation in these two stocks will put the kibosh on the wilding spree that recouped nearly all of the previous day’s huge losses. Evidence continues to mount that the bull market begun in March 2009 is over. If so, the transition from bull market to bear is going to produce some of the wildest price swings traders have ever seen. If what we’ve witnessed lately is just a warm-up for even more-extreme swings as seems likely, we’re in for bumpy ride over the next couple of years._______ UPDATE (Oct 26, 8:16 a.m.): The 1584.66 target shown in the chart I sent out last night caught AMZN’s low within less than $1.  The stock has since bounced $54. So much for the random walk theory.

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Lee October 27, 2018, 1:35 pm

Since 2009 bottom, stocks are in another long up phase similar to the runup from 1975 to 2000. Market excesses have to be worked off from time to time, that’s all the market can do. It overshoots to the upside and it overshoots to the downside. And the mid term election years are always crap…..

none October 26, 2018, 10:06 am

12 bombs and not one went off.

If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.

Have a great weekend Rick.

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