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WeWork IPO a Sobering Thought


Today’s chart (inset) shows ponderous supply sitting on the Nasdaq 100. The two smaller peaks to the left were made significant by the size of the decline that followed them. They harbor many investors who undoubtedly are eager to exit now that the broad averages have returned to those record levels. There is a further impediment in the form of the head-and-shoulderish formation at the righthand edge of the chart. Taken together, it’s possible the three peaks could turn back a stampede of short-covering. We just don’t know.

What we do know is that for the foreseeable future, physical supply, whatever its size, will weigh less than the unnerving perception that three high-profile IPOs are about to flunk their entrance exams. Two of them, Uber and Lyft, have already done swan dives after their insulting accounting practices became headline fodder. WeWork’s impending IPO will make Lyft’s and Uber’s look like a swing-dance party.  The office-rental giant is the juiciest piece of red meat thrown to bears in a long while, a stock that cries out to be shorted when it starts trading, presumably sometime in 2019. And so does the Nasdaq, for that matter; for there is no way it can achieve new record highs with Wall Street sweating the debut of WeWork and numerous other unicorns. Usually fantasy stocks get marked to market only after actual profits impose a PE ratio on them. In this case, however, there’s already enough skepticism toward WeWork’s louche definition of success to suggest that the IPO when it finally happens will be, not a swing-dance party, but a jazz funeral.

Please do not ask trading questions!

  • none May 16, 2019, 6:22 am

    Alabama’s near-total abortion ban
    Several other states — Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi, and Ohio — have all passed laws this year banning abortion once a fetal heartbeat is detected, which can occur before many women know they’re pregnant.

    “Unconstitutional.” “A utter disgrace.” “It’s time to fight like hell.” 2020 Democratic presidential candidates are hitting back hard against Alabama’s near-total abortion ban, which was signed into law by Gov. Kay Ivey on Wednesday

    Oprah says U.S. needs ‘open arms, not closed borders’ | Nation …
    Oprah Winfrey discusses American values at Statue of Liberty Museum opening.


    Major shifts in history come by way of those popular towards the recent trend in thinking.

    Can they all be so wrong in what they think?

    1932 Forward by Bernard Baruch..in Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

    A trend shift is quick like, they are lighting events taking place under extremes sentiment towards the ‘all knowing crowd’. Few can sense the changing times, ideas overlap, and the affects towards all things heat up like a wild fire. The ‘new trend’ up ahead drives ‘under the current’ for many years and when it rises the ‘crest of the wave’, it is and has been already in control.

    The effects towards the thinking of all things in society not just economics continue to rely or be in the loop of what ‘was’ and not of what already ‘is’.
    The INDU has move 4% from an extreme high point towards the 04/18/2019 intense non confirming technical readings in 5-7 trading days (4 percent rule of trend change), this is a major shift rule. It has also created a daily and weekly ‘sling shot’ rule downward in pricing.

    Observing lower pricing is in place towards each level after the 23k level.

    DXY again has a DSI reading of ‘91’ for 2 days at its recent highs, suggesting lower trending value with lower equity stock value. This is a ‘pre-crash setup’ towards Currency/NYSE equity trending lower, once both have been lower in price any where from 15-40% in value. The crash will take place.

    Have a great day today Rick.

  • John Jay May 15, 2019, 11:30 pm

    Uber, Lyft, WeWork, Facebook, TWTR, Netflix, AMZN, WMT, GOOG?
    Talk about post industrial America!
    Well, I have been buying nice 16 ounce plastic drinking cups at WMT, proudly Made in America!
    Unquestionably, there has been progress!

    One possible reason for those inflated stock prices for AMZN,FB, GOOG?
    State sanctioned monopolies, especially AMZN.
    If ever there was problem corporation screaming for a Sherman Anti-Trust action…….
    Again, I wonder why none of the big old time technology firms ever jumped into the GOOG, TWTR, FB realm.
    Perhaps Uncle Sam put out the word that they will not tolerate any challengers to the above, since they were NSA/CIA funded from the word go?
    At the rate they are censoring the critics of the Bolsheviks unimpeded by the 1st Amendment, it seems to me their status as state sanctioned monopolies provides perfect cover for the Deep State Swamp Denizens to shut down dissent.

    Alas, no matter how cynical I become, I can’t keep up!

  • JP May 15, 2019, 11:19 pm

    Just wait until the CrowdStrike IPO makes its debut. They were involved in a coup attempt against a sitting President and still have the cajones to push their worthless paper out to the public. The definition of arrogance