Ricks Picks

Thinking the Unthinkable About 2020


Stocks plunged Friday for a third straight day, supposedly because of some Trump tweets calculated to goad China into a face-saving trade deal. There was good news on the jobs front, but it apparently wasn’t good enough to counteract investors’ nascent zeal for dumping shares. Gurus who routinely tune out the headlines in order to pay closer attention to technical indicators know better. For it is not “the news” that drives the markets, but the opposite — i.e., the cyclically ordained ups and downs of stocks color our interpretation of the news. Indeed, no one would have cared much about Trump’s latest trade-war salvo on Twitter if stocks had been moving higher last week. But they weren’t. The broad averages were falling hard after cresting an inch from some technically derived targets that had been well disseminated in the trading world.

Cycles master Peter Eliades’ target, for one. We published a chart from him weeks ago, and again last week, that has been magically calling important tops and bottoms in the New York Composite Index since the bull market began in 2009. Here’s a year’s worth if you’re skeptical. We put out a corresponding target of our own on July 23 that came within three ticks of nailing the recent 3029.50 top of the E-Mini S&Ps’ 115-point dive last week. Although no guru can claim to understand the mysterious forces that make these targets work, work they do, often with amazing accuracy.

Babson’s Break

Now watch what happens in the weeks and months ahead as stocks continue to fall. This will not merely color the news, but impel it. Specifically, it will force the hand of the Open Market Committee, which has tried to mask its spinelessness with faint protests of reluctance. This clumsy kabuki — a literal enactment of the old saw, “Whip me, beat me, make me write bad checks” — has fooled no one, least of all investors. They know the banksters will give in if stocks fall far enough. But with Europe and China sliding deeper into recession, monetary easing will have only a muted effect, not only on stocks, but on economic growth.

As for the trade war, it is already starting to suck the oxygen from the global economy. Shares will rally from time to time nonetheless, ostensibly because of progress on the tariff front but in reality because of cyclical moods swings. The larger trend, however, will be down. The still-unspeakable prospect is that the bull market’s death will scuttle Trump’s re-election. Comes the day when investors start visualizing Elizabeth Warren or Bernie in the White House, there will be no bottom for the stock market and no end to its bad days. In the meantime, enjoy whatever last-gasp rallies may remain before the selling turns ugly. It could begin with a shot across the bow such as occurred when Babson’s break sent stocks plummeting one memorable day in September 1929, seven weeks before Black Monday. Perhaps last week’s selloff was the beginning of our Babson’s Break?

Comments on this entry are closed.

none August 5, 2019, 11:57 am



Obama presidency lost 2000 ‘democratic delegates’ while he was in charge he was the worst thing for the party. Observing though that it was and is not the party it once was.

Now over 30-45% of democratic leaders receive funds from the DSA now over 30 years, these funds come from the Muslin Brotherhood in an array of ways.

The Obama presidency allow many of these organization to feel comfortable and to expose themselves, one must know your enemy before you can fight him.

The Trump presidency starts to place the hammer on this social change, the voting of the terrorist law this year to be acted towards the muslin brotherhood is very important.

America is in a war but as yet does not signal the 1st shot.

The Hillary election, absolutely had Russian involvement and that was to get ‘her’ elected. Her 2nd had direct contract towards the muslin brotherhood, how Hillary was vetted is almost an insult. But, the fact that Obama move away from her and Trump wining was a win for the the United States.

The DSA has directed contact to Putin and his friend, Russian President Putin, Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei these are the enemy of the USA, to destroy western culture.

The win of Trump suggest that the electoral collage vote, not allowing ‘mob rule’ was corrupted and place Trump in power and towards fighting America’s the enemy. Without Obama allowing so many ‘Muslim’ organizations o expose themselves this could not have taken place.

We have had a series of 2 terms presidency in the recent 3 decades, I do not think we will have another.

But, having a candidate in either party that again moves even more extreme towards the muslin population will be a ‘shoe in’. And, it will suggest America continues to fight and win this long war over the decades.

The Bear market we are entering will be the same as the Japan entry of its Bear market of 1989.

Have a great day Rick.

John Jay August 5, 2019, 12:34 am

Let’s face it………………..
The United States is no longer a world class country.
It has become little more than a province of Mexico and China.
Look around you; it becomes more evident every day now.
Just look at the lunatics the Dems are running for the 2020 election.
America haters, every one of them.
If Trump somehow wins in 2020, then 2024 will see one of the Chiquita Khrushchev types take over.

If and when the US stock market realizes that…………well, anything is possible.

Trump is selling out on gun control now, as the Deep State narrative confusing the Method with the Madness goes into overdrive.
All more gun control will do is force lunatics with murder in their hearts to get much more creative.
Just google Happy Land fire, and Bath school disaster 1927.
There is no greater motivation than unrequited hate.
I rest my case.

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