I’ve unfurled the yellow flag, since the E-Mini S&Ps topped Tuesday slightly above a 3369.25 rally target I’d been drum-rolling for more than a week. Monday’s price action was both peculiar and deceptive, since the day began with index futures extending an overnight rally with their usual brio. But about an hour into the session they turned south, presumably correcting to recharge for another rally. Your editor took the bait with a buy recommendation that turned into a loser when the bounce sputtered out just shy of a profit target. This is unusual, since nearly all of the tricks we’ve been using to get long have been working perhaps 80% of the time. Not this time, however, and the fact that it did not should temper our enthusiasm for bottom-fishing until we’ve seen a few more abcd patterns play out in both directions. _______ UPDATE (Feb 12, 9:37 p.m. EST): Just when it seemed as though the futures would never fall, they’ve plummeted nearly 20 points tonight in mere minutes. The purported reason is a jump in coronavirus cases, but as far as Wall Street pros are concerned, this ranks right up there on their worry list with a Martian invasion. Let’s see how DaBoyz maneuver this sleazy shakedown before we place any new bets. _______ UPDATE (Feb 13, 7:56 a.m.): Hidden Pivot supports got crushed overnight. This implies DaBoyz are starting to think the coronavirus story could be robust enough to help them push stocks down to relative bargain levels. The risk is that the virus will spread sufficiently to become a true menace even on Wall Street, where heedless complacency has had more than a decade to become as entrenched as the worst cancers.
The Yellow Flag Is Out
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