Rick Ackerman

Our lowball bid last week for 16 Nov 20 305/310/315 call butterflies was filled at 0.10, giving us a speculative exposure to an explosive post-election rally. Presumably this would occur if Trump is the winner, since there would be precious little to celebrate on Wall Street if a socialist and her senile running mate emerge victorious. I've altered my expectations for the rally, however, and now think it will be short-lived in any event. That means we might have to settle for less than the potential 50-to-1 payoff if QQQ ascends toward 310 between now and November 20, when the options expire.  It's still a pretty good bet in my opinion, one for for which we are getting distant-longshot odds. Please note that those odds would change for the worse if QQQ slips below 260.11 on Monday or Tuesday, since that would negate the bullish rally pattern itself along with the 312.99 target. _______ UPDATE (Nov 4, 11:44 p.m. EST): Today's strong rally allowed subscribers to exit half of their positions for as much as 0.25 -- two-and-a-half-times what we paid for each butterfly spread. QQQ rallied 15 points today alone, so a further rally of 18 points to the 305 sweet spot over the next 20 days is hardly unthinkable.  In the meantime, we have reduced our risk on the remaining eight spreads to zero, with the theoretical possibility of making as much as $500 on each spread, or $4,000 for the lot of them. Our initial outlay was just $160. ______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 9:09 p.m.): The spread traded for as much as 0.52 at the top of today's blast -- more than five time what some subscribers paid for it last week. You're on your own now, but be sure to keep a few contracts for a

AAPL shares got hit last week on news that sales in China had been impacted by supply-chain problems.  I said at the the time that these difficulties would be forgotten by Monday, since that has been the pattern in AAPL for years: 'Bad news? Who cares.' In this instance, however, I was looking for countervailing strength in the election outlook to hold all stocks, most particularly AAPL, aloft. Instead, investors showed little confidence last week in their ability to pick Tuesday's big winner. We'll have to wait until Wednesdays for the election to have whatever impact it's going to have. The 151.94 rally target will remain valid unless C=103.11 is penetrated to the downside. We made a small profit on some bullish butterfly spreads cashed out earlier. Let's do it again, but using a 128.24 rally target that is more realistic. Bid 0.25 for eight Nov 20 120/125/130 call butterflies, good till noon Tuesday, and only if the stock has not traded lower than 107.85, There's a good chance I will adjust this order, or even attempt to leg on the spread for less than 0.10, so stay tuned to the chat room and your email for further guidance. If you are uncertain about how to execute the spread, review the recorded lesson on this topic on your account page.  You should also have 'notifications' checked to receive updates in real time. _______ UPDATE (Nov 2, 9:36 pm. ET): The stock slipped below 107.85 in the early going, nullifying our plan. We'll let it rest on election day. ______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 9:19): The institutional chimps are back, force-feeding tons of Other People's Money up AAPL's old wazoo.  Its immediate destination is the 127.52 midpoint pivot shown in this chart, but there are no guarantees it will get there straightaway

We hold some Nov 6 130 puts effectively for free, since subscribers were able to cash out half of the original position for as much as four times what they'd paid. They are a distant longshot at this point, but you never can tell. In any event, they will have a few days to respond to the nuclear shock wave if Joe' Biden wins. I am still predicting Trump's re-election, however, and we should be thrilled to see our puts expire worthless if that's how things play out. There may also be an opportunity to buy IWM 'mechanically' on a pullback to the green line (see inset) if it should be hit on Tuesday before election returns start trickling in. Stay tuned to the chat room for further guidance. ______ UPDATE (Nov 14, 11:53 p.m.): Although I was wrong about the election outcome and the powerful rally it catalyzed in this vehicle, it cost us nothing because we had taken a partial profit on half the position, selling it for twice what we'd paid. Some subscribers actually made money being wrong, since it was possible to sell the puts for as much as four times their acquisition cost.  Now, a two-day close above p=161.78 would put a 172.17 rally target in play (60-min, A=143.35 on 9.25). _______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 9:21 p.m.): The way buyers ripped through p=161.78 today all but guarantees that IWM wlil achieve the 172.17 target.

On the chance that many Christmas stockings will be stuffed with Ruger handguns this year, we can position ourselves to benefit from a powerful rise in the stock. The rally target we'll use lies at 99.72 (see inset), and I'm recommending eight Dec 20 95/100/105 call butterflies to leverage a possible move to that number. Bid 0.25 for the time being, but plan on adjusting the price if none come at 0.25. This gambit is effectively a straddle on the election, since urban rioting, looting and violence are likely to erupt if Trump wins, but there is also the prospect of police departments across the country being defunded with Biden in the White House and a consequent unprecedented outbreak of lawlessness. We will look for longer-term 'weaponization' plays if that's the case, since Biden/Harris are hellbent on ending the America Experiment, including a criminal justice system that an army of hard-left lawyers heave been systematically dismantling for years. _______ UPDATE (Nov 2, 8:36 p.m.): The 0.25 bid was midway between a negative bid and positive offer (-040 / 0.95), although in this instance, paying the midway-price proved to have been no bargain. Regardless, the dime's difference between a good price and a lousy one won't likely change the outcome. I'll track the spread at 0.25, as is customary. It will come alive if and when glass starts shattering again in the cities. For now, offer half of the spreads to close for 0.50, good till canceled. _______ UPDATE (Nov 4, 11:58 p.m.): Ruger shares dove on Biden's apparent victory, and so did our call options. A lot could happen between now and Dec 20, when they expire, so we needn't give up on the position. However, and for what it's worth, the most bullish thing I could imagine for our

Silver intraday chart looks a little better than gold's, although a modest rally to the green line at 24.25 would still trip a 'mechanical' short (stop 25.70), as would a corresponding upthrust in gold. The short-term picture would brighten somewhat on a print at 24.77, since that would generate a health impulse leg on the hourly chart. The sooner this happens, if it does, the more bullish it would be. Failing that, the larger, bearish pattern (see inset) still indicates further slippage to p2=21.36, or possibly even D=19.92 if any lower.

The dollar has reversed sharply, averting a nerve-racking test of a long-term trendline that comes in this week at 92.13. DXY got no lower than 92.47 in the most recent down-cycle, and the last time it touched the trendline was three weeks ago at 91.70. The day's rally was not powerful enough to lead bulls out of the woods. but it  has somewhat lowered the odds of a major breakdown.  Prospects would further improve if the nascent surge generates an impulse leg on the daily chart. That would require an explosive rally exceeding 96.40 at a minimum, but it wouldn't be much of an impulse leg, since the external peak at that price  (7/10/20) is small potatoes.  On the less important hourly chart, it would take merely 94.11 to re-energize the short-term picture. That;s equal to an 'external' peak recorded on 9/30 on the way down. ______ UPDATE (Nov 1, 10:02 a.m.): Wouldn't ya know it! The little devil topped at 94.10 last week -- close, but no cigar. It looked primed to succeed nonetheless, although the pullback this will have required counts as a mild discouragement of the idea that the rally is destined for big things. ______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 9:27 p.m.): The rally has come suspiciously from two ticks above the in-your-face low at 92.47 recorded on  10/21. If it is not a strong one, look for a relapse to the 91.75 depths of September's abyss. _____ UPDATE (Nov 8, 9:45 p.m.): The rally that got off to such a promising start on 9/1 has fizzled, so I am going to remove this tout to make room for more interesting fare. I will continue to track the dollar nevertheless with occasional posts, although not on the front page.

A stellar session! It covered some basic rules from days of yore so that they are more relevant to the rABC and mechanical setups that we've been using intensively. There are some subtleties here that are capable of taking your results up a couple of notches. We also looked at a very promising butterfly in QQQ that you will have time to execute if you watch this video soon enough. There are also some additional, timely trades to consider in DIA and December Silver. The short-term outlook for bullion is bearish, by the way, and it behooves you to understand why.

Assuming the selloff doesn't take out the 260.11 point C low shown in the chart, the bullish pattern projects to as high as 312.29. This would not be farfetched if Trump wins, so I'll recommend putting on some butterfly spreads centered on the 310 strike.  Specifically, you should bid 0.10 for 16 Nov 20 305/310/315 call butterflies, good through Friday.  Alternatively, you can try to leg into the position, first by buying 305/310 calls spreads for  0.20, day order. QQQ might have to fall by 3-4 points to get this order filled. If the bid succeeds, offer the 310/315 call spread for 0.20. This is how we would leg into the spread for no cost, but I may adjust the order depending on how QQQ behaves on Thursday and Friday. ______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 9:53): The quoted midpoint on the spread is around 0.16, so we'll give out 0.10 bid one more day. If it doesn't fill, we may have to pay up on Monday.

Stocks have gotten hit hard this week.  Have investors perhaps caught a whiff of a possible Biden victory and the damage he and his socialist running mate would inflict on American businesses and the middle class? That's one explanation, and I raised the possibility here numerous times over the last several weeks that it could occur, even if it was highly unlikely. In any event, the stock market is a lot smarter than the pollsters, and therefore probably better at predicting Tuesday's winner. However, Wall Street is also a sleazy carnival midway on a giant scale, and so it can be assumed that regardless of which way shares are moving on a given day, there is a reason for it that suits the needs of the market's Masters. Covid Lie Helps So why would they want stocks to fall? My theory is that because they are pretty certain Trump is going to be re-elected, they've pulled their bids in order to accumulate shares at fire-sale prices. This would position them for the huge rally that is all but certain to follow a Trump victory. Manipulating the markets in this way is especially easy with the news media promoting the lie that Covid-19 has gone out of control.  They've hammered this phony story lately because they think it will help defeat Trump. If it scares you, relax -- I am still predicting that Trump will win by a landslide, and as for the virus, cases are expanding simply because testing has greatly expanded. Rick's Picks subscribers will be getting ready for the big rally by laying in some cheap call spreads for spectacular leverage. If you don't subscribe, click the trial offer button near the top of this page and join the fun. See you in the chat room! _______ UPDATE