Rick Ackerman

Like numerous bullion vehicles that we track and trade, Newmont has disappointed by failing to surpass on the first try a distinctive external peak to the left on the intraday charts -- in this case a mildly challenging external one at 27.47 (see inset). The shortfall would be remedied by a modest 55-cent rally from current levels, but even then we'd be left to infer that buyers are more timid than if they'd easily surmounted the peak. Assuming they are at least game to try again, we should see the corrective abc pattern cut short and reverse from somewhere near the p midpoint. Otherwise, look for a further correction down to 'd' that would of course be buy-able with a tight stop (or via camouflage). Please note that the 'failed' rally is impulsive nonetheless, albeit less than impressive because it did not surpass 27.47.  _______ UPDATE (10:59 a.m. EDT):  The p=26.83 midpoint support in fact held when Newmont gapped sharply higher on Monday morning. The stock had gone no lower on Friday than 26.86 after manifesting an a-b correction leg.  Now I'd suggest using the 27.89 target shown as a new minimum upside objective for the (very) near-term.

Gold is slow coming out of the gate Sunday night, but at least the movement is up rather than down. Also, price action is sufficiently cautious that we might infer DaBoyz are not very confident about which direction to take things. These factors would seem to favor a continuation of the rally from last week's 1251.00 low (which, incidentally, occurred just an inch from a longstanding bear-market target we'd been using at 1250.50, a Hidden Pivot).  Night owls should take note of the fact that, even on the 30-minute chart (see inset), there is a potential set-up for a low-risk 'camouflage' entry, with upside potential over the near term to as high as 1350.10 . The opportunity would of course be most compelling following a B-C pullback from just above (i.e., 2-4 ticks) the 1318.90 'external' peak that I've labeled. A similarly enticing opportunity would become manifest on a pullback from just above peak #2 at 1320.70. I've sketched the first scenario hypothetically for your further, explicit guidance. _______ UPDATE (10:46 a.m. EDT): The trade worked more or less as I'd sketched it, although it tripped a false entry signal at 1317.10 around 9:00 p.m. that, executed on the 30-min chart (i.e., without camouflage) would have produced a per contract loss of $200.  A second entry opportunity 15 minutes later came at 1316.70, and you could have ridden it beyond the 1322.10 target, to as high as 1323.90, for a gain per contract of as much as $720.  Of course, both trades could have -- and should have -- been done via camouflage to limit entry risk. This would have reduced profits on the second trade, since 75% of the position would have been exited by the time D=1322.10 was reached. But even then, going by-the-book, you 'd have reaped

In June, when Google was trading for around $880, the village idiot could have told you the stock would eventually trade for $1000. But how to play it without losing one’s shirt if wrong?  The strategy we devised entailed legging into free “butterfly” call spreads targeted on the 1010 strike. This implied buying bull spreads when the stock was weak, then selling bear spreads against them for at least the same amount when the stock turned strong. Using this tactic, even if GOOG fell to zero, subscribers would lose nothing; but if it rallied to exceed $1000, they’d reap gains of as much as $1000 per spread. On Friday, the stock easily bettered our expectations, leaping a mind-blowing $126, to $1015, on very good earnings. As a result, one subscriber who’d bought some cheap option spreads reported doubling his trading account overnight. Another said he cashed out of spreads for 4.80 that he’d bought for a small fraction of that price. How We Lucked Out Luck played a role. That’s because the stock exploded higher before subscribers were able to leg into the second half of the butterfly – the bearish half. The bullish part of our bet – buying eight November 1000-1010 call spreads for 0.47 apiece – was completed weeks ago, and we were waiting for a rally in order to short eight November 1010-1020 spreads for the same amount. But with Friday’s blast, the short spread could have fetched as much as 5.00 intraday – more than ten times what we’d hoped to get for it. At that price, the resulting butterfly, done for a net credit of $5, would have locked in a profit of at least $500 and as much as $1500, with no possible loss.  In the actual event, subscribers reported cashing out the

Yesterday's blitzkrieg rally was sufficient to turn all of the intraday charts -- although not the 'daily; that would take a print at 1353.90 -- bullishly impulsive.  It won't require much of a pullback to prep the December contract for another leg up, but when it comes, you should try to board at the signaled 'x' entry point, zooming down to perhaps the three-minute chart to find an equivalent and less risky 'x' in microcosm. I've sketched this out (see inset) for your further guidance. _______ UPDATE (12:07 p.m. EDT):  All signs are still bullish, but the futures are taking their sweet old time consolidating. In practice, this will make it difficult, at least today, to get long via camouflage. I'd be tempted myself to stake out at least a small position at the close, however, since a continuation of the uptrend on Sunday seems like a better-than-coin-toss bet, at least to me.

It warms the cockles to see the mindless herd respond with such enthusiasm to Facebook's announcement that it will make everyone's personal information available to virtually anyone in the world who wants or needs it, including those who don't subscribe, the Stasi, Triad assassins, Macy's, Julian Assange and your first wife.  As to how much higher this gas-bag is likely to waft before privacy concerns kill the golden goose, the Hidden Pivot target at 54.51 (see inset) is my best guess. There's a lesser pivot at 53.16 where we might look for a stall, but I'm suggesting holding out for more, and for shorting the stock if and when it kisses 54.51.  The blue line just beneath that target is an alert I've set to warn me with bells and whistles when the target is reached. Traders who play this stock should do the same. Officially, I'll recommend offering 400 shares short at 54.51, stop 54.67.  (Note: I'd suggested getting long until the target is reached during yesterday's impromptu trading session, but the stock could already be there by the time you read this.) _______ UPDATE (12:15 p.m. EDT): The little cow pie popped to 54.83 before doing what we'd expected it to do -- i.e., sink.  Officially we no longer hold a position and will record a $70 loss. However, I'm gratified to have heard from numerous subscribers who used a wider stop-loss and who are therefore still short. You're in at an opportune price, and I wish you good luck managing the position. I'll suggest diving for cover, though, if FB pokes even slightly above Friday's high. _______ UPDATE (October 21, 11:06 a.m. EDT):  Shorts can relax now that this hoax has failed to surpass Friday's high.  DaSleazeballs opened it on a bull-trap high that hit 54.81, but

We can all breathe a sigh of relief now that things are back to normal on Capitol Hill.  Wall Street's sigh of relief, as ostentatious as bulls could make it, has exceeded my expectations, for sure.  Dare we hope for just a little more craziness -- enough of it, that is, to get us filled on some short offers not far above these levels?  If you're interested in how high I think a last-gasp rally could go, and eager to place some bets on the 'Don't' line, check out today's E-Mini S&P tout and the chart that accompanies it.

Two important Hidden Pivots await to challenge the gumption of Wall Street's mechanical bull.  The resistance points lie, respectively, at 1748.00 and 1767.00, and we'll be looking to get short in either place -- to make a small profit, even, if we're wrong and stocks simply ratchet past both. The lower number can be used as a minimum upside projection for the near-term, but with the caveat that the party -- in its 56th month now and as frivolously energetic as ever -- could end at any moment. If the higher target is in fact easily surpassed, we will once again have underestimated the foolishness that has driven stocks ever higher since 2009 and which would now flout abundant evidence that the Republic itself is crumbling. (Click here...or...here, if you need to be convinced.) Traders can use a stop-loss as wide as 2.25 points shorting 1748.00 if they are reversing a long position entered at 1739.00 or lower, but we'll play it by ear if there's a trade at 1767.00. The chat room will be the place to be if you're game to play.

Buyers have managed to push the futures to the midpoint resistance of the pattern discussed here yesterday, but the action at the red line is too timid to offer any assurance that the 1302.80 target with which it is associated will be reached. Regardless, because the rally refreshed the bullish impulsiveness of the lesser charts, it should be traded with a bullish bias. This implies entry at an 'x' trigger such as the one shown. Because the theoretical entry risk would be around 1.80, though, you'll need to initiate the trade, camouflage-style, at the point 'x' of an even smaller pattern. My guess is that you may need to drill down to the 15- or 30-second chart to find the opportunity you're looking for. _______ UPDATE (10:51 a.m. EDT): On the 3-minute chart, the first 'camouflage' entry trigger that perfectly met our criteria occurred at 3:21 a.m.:  1278.80. The initial theoretical risk was 1.20, but one could have reduced it to as little as 0.30 on charts of sub-minute degree. If at least two fills are reported in the chat room, I'll establish tracking guidance.

Now that's more like it! We've been looking for a rally to get short, and yesterday's knee-jerk spasm promises even richer prices in the days ahead. In the chart that accompanies this tout, you'll see numerous ABC rally patterns, each with a unique target. The two we should focus on today are 1726.25 and 1733.25, and day traders can short either using the camouflage technique. If you're looking to do the trade quick and clean with a simple short offer, try a single contract at the higher number, stop 1734.25. I'm suggesting this because the precise impact at the p midpoint has validated the target itself. Although there's money to be made on the long side as well, it may be available only to night owls, since Thursday's opening bell could produce a gap-up rally to either of the targets given above. For detailed instructions on initiating a position short in the Diamonds, stay tuned to the chat room and my e-mail bulletins.