Rick Ackerman

Gold's rallies continue to lack conviction, with most minor thrusts falling shy of modest Hidden Pivot benchmarks.  We'll give bulls the benefit of the doubt nonetheless, since they have at least managed to eke out modest gains toward the end of the day.  Yesterday they tripped a minor buy signal at 1319.90 in the late afternoon (see inset), but could not subsequently muster the additional 5-point climb it would have taken to challenge a midpoint resistance at 1325.10.  That'll be our minimum objective as the week draws to a close, and if it's exceeded by at least three ticks, camouflageurs should look for a micro-ABC rally to take them higher. Short-term potential thereafter would be an additional 10 points, but you should take the position home over the weekend only if you're halfway to the target when the bell rings. ________ UPDATE (9:53 a.m. EDT): Gold popped fleetingly to 1326.00 this morning but has since retreated so swiftly that there have been zero camo buying signals this far, even on the one-minute chart. This is not bullish action, but rather, distributive -- rallies that are being ginned up to tease, tempt and titillate. We can participate if we choose, even making money when we are 'wrong', but there are obviously better vehicles to trade. For now, you should keep my 1250.50 downside target in mind when these presumably phony rallies unfold. _______ UPDATE (October 7, 2:36 a.m. EDT): No change. The best thing Gold has going for, technically speaking, is that December Silver still looks somewhat more bullish at the moment than December Gold looks bearish.

Price action lately has been squirrelly, to put it mildly. That doesn't mean the futures are unpredictable, only that trend legs in either direction haven't been getting very far before reversing. That said, the 1666.75 midpoint support in the chart shown looks like a good place to try bottom-fishing with a stop-loss as tight as 1.00 point. If you initiate the trade with a straight bid, one contract will suffice; if via camouflage, use four.  Please note that if the stop is hit, more downside to the 1656.00 'D' target would be implied.

Gold was in a shallow correction Wednesday night after a $40 binge earlier in the day. Although I am skeptical about bulls' staying power and sticking with a 1250 downside target for the time being, today's tout acknowledges the possibility that the best opportunity of the day could come on the long side. For graphic instructions on how to get aboard, check out the chart accompanying the tout.

Tesla's plunge yesterday overshot a Hidden Pivot target, implying there is more selling to come. The ostensible reason for the selloff was a YouTube video posted on the web that showed a Tesla sedan in flames following an accident in Seattle. If regulators were to discover that the person who posted the video had shorted the stock it would raise some interesting legal questions, especially if it turns out that the fire was staged. If you are criminally inclined, and knew how put options work, you might be asking yourself why you didn't think of doing this yourself, since it triggered an avalanche in a grotesquely overbought stock that was ready to fall.  For your information, weekly October 175  puts purchased for 0.35 the day before would have quintupled your money in mere hours. _______ UPDATE (November 27): I posted a $91 target in the chat room a while back when the stock was trading above $140. It now looks like TSLA will fall to at least $96.31 before it finds traction, but $88.95 is possible if that Hidden Pivot fails.

Unlike Gold, December Silver eked out a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chat with yesterday's strong rebound. Because the high of the move did not break out above a series of peaks recorded over the last two weeks, it should be regarded as the opportune point 'B' of a tradable rally pattern. It may take a couple of point 'C' lows before the futures embark on a sustained follow-through leg, however, and traders should therefore use camouflage to initiate a buy. An alternative would be to simply wait for a second point 'C' to form before you pounce, but this approach would risk missing the trade if Silver takes off without a protracted consolidation. _______ UPDATE (October 4, 2:20 a.m. EDT):  Subscribers tuned to the chat room around mid-day could have caught a short, profitable ride using the price coordinates I posted at that time.  The futures hit a minor target then stalled out, leaving a moderately bullish picture when the day ended. Immediate upside potential is to 22.450, the D target associated with A=21.035 at 4 a.m. on 10/2, so your bias should be bullish at the outset. ________ UPDATE (October 8, 12:36 a.m. EDT): Yesterday's blast overshot my target by nearly a nickel, implying that higher prices are on the way.  Based on price action at the midpoint resistance, you should regard the 22.765 target shown (a new one, along with a new chart) not only as a minimum price objective for the near term, but one that is extremely likely to be reached.

We squinted and pored over the lesser charts in search of an attractive real-time trading opportunity during yesterday's tutorial session, but there were none to be found. Bears held a small edge at the close amidst a tedious flux of bullish and bearish impulse legs, all of them minor.  Even so, your best bet for today my lie in the 'external' peak at 1692.75 that I've flagged in the chart. Any 'dwarfed' impulse leg that exceeds it slightly, then pulls back into a 'b-c' correction, could get you aboard for a bullish finishing stroke to the week.

Gold savaged my forecast yesterday, uncorking a powerful rally on a day when I'd expected just the opposite. The downside target at 1250.50 remains valid nonetheless, and although I could continue rooting for it until I'm shamed into retreat, I'll revert to the purely mechanical analysis that you have come to rely on.  From that perspective, yesterday's $40 rally was still not very impressive, since the reversal failed to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. That would require a print at 1337.90, about $21 above current levels. Traders needn't wait for so obvious a signal to get long, since there's a nice 'hook' for camouflage in the form of a look-to-the-left peak at 1324.90 (10/1 at 9:00 a.m. EDT)  It doesn't even display properly on the hourly chart, but any rally that pulls back in 'b-c' fashion from a tick or two above it would provide a very enticing opportunity to get long nonetheless.

Today's gold tout acknowledges what has become increasingly obvious -- that the bull trend begun on June 28 looks like a goner.  Although the weekly chart is still nominally positive, the weight of selling on the daily chart is about to prevail. My downside target implies another $40 drop, and although the projected low would still be above the June low, if it's reached the burden of proof will once again fall heavily on the bulls.

I've been giving the bullish case the benefit of the doubt as the futures have fallen by $157 over the last month, mainly because the impulse leg generated by August's rally to 1434.00 is intact down to 1271.80. Although yesterday's low held $5 above that number, the daily chart strongly persuades that the selloff will continue to at least 1250.50. You can buy aggressively at that price because the downtrending ABC pattern is such a beauty (see inset). However, because we don't have a crystal ball, I'll suggest risking only small change on the stop-loss. Camouflageurs should shoot for four contracts, but if you try this gambit with a straight bid, place it at 1250.60 for a single contract, stop 1249.80. _______ UPDATE (10:12 a.m. EDT): The futures are rallying today, but if the buying goes just an inch farther, reaching the 1312.90 midpoint pivot of the pattern shown, this should be viewed as a 'camo' shorting opportunity. In any event, the rally would have to hit 1375.50 to negate the 1250.50 target.