Several subscribers reported buying December 28 puts yesterday for 0.62, so that's the price we'll use as our cost basis. The 32.76 rally target we've shorted is so clear that I should consider Seppuku if the futures do not in fact turn lower from very near here. However, my ritual disembowelment should not deter you from managing the risk of this trade prudently, and I'll therefore suggest that you stop yourself out of the puts if they trade down to 0.37. This will effective limit theoretical exposure to $200 for the eight puts held. _______ UPDATE (September 29, 11:32 p.m. EDT): The puts closed a penny off Friday's 0.48 low. Maintain stops as advised, exiting the position on a sell-stop if they trade for 0.37. _______ UPDATE (October 1, 11:45 a.m.): We were stopped out this morning for a $200 trading loss. We'll try again, perhaps after the 'Alibaba Effect' has run its course. That could be concurrent with YHOO trading as high as 36.51. More immediately, the stock faces resistance -- presumably short-able using the 'camouflage' technique -- at 34.60, the Hidden Pivot target associated with 36.51. _______ UPDATE (October 1, 7:01 p.m. EDT): The short from near 34.40 was worth a small profit, since the perfect 'camo' pattern shown (see inset) would have tripped you in at 34.10 and out at 33.95 (5-minute, a=34.21 at 12:50 p.m.) The stock recovered sharply by day's end, however, strongly implying it's bound for the 36.51 target noted above.
Rick Ackerman
LNKD – LinkedIn Corp. (Last:237.28)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksWe'll get out of the way of this hoax for the time being, re-shorting the stock when it reaches the 268.50 target shown. Judging from the way DaBoyz short-squeezed LNKD through the midpoint resistance yesterday, the target is all but guaranteed. When buyers reach 268.50, we'll want to buy out-of-the-money put options, but with tighter risk management this time. Two subscribers reporting filling the earlier spread order for 1.10 (x 8), but I'll assume it was exited for 0.90, generating a $160 loss. (Note: It would have been possible to exit for as much as 1.25 after I blew 'taps' on the position.) I will recommend the short from 268.50 only to those who have profited from the strong, potentially last-gasp rally that has yet to unfold. _______ UPDATE (October 8, 2:53 a.m. EDT): We'll put this one aside for now, lest we risk death by boredom.
GCZ13 – December Gold (Last:1323.40)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksGold's price action has a nasty way of stressing Hidden Pivot supports to-the-max before the futures turn higher, so we shouldn't take the current ordeal too seriously until such time as 1272.50 is impulsively exceeded to the downside (see inset). Otherwise, the weekly chart will remain bullish, with upside potential on the next thrust to as high as 1453.00. A lesser ABC pattern at the rightmost edge of the chart is also bullish and needs but a two-day close above 1353.70 to energize buyers for a more sustained push. This is as simplified an analysis as I can offer, and you should familiarize yourself with the relevant price points if you want to be on top of any movement up or down that truly matters.
December Gold ‘Poised’
– Posted in: Free Rick's PicksGold's snap-back rally yesterday left the December contract just shy of a low-risk buying trigger on the 30-minute chart. For precise details as to how high a follow-through could go in the days ahead, check out today's tout and the chart that accompanies it.
GCZ13 – December Gold (Last:1333.20)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksBy climbing out of a hole yesterday, the futures left themselves poised for a follow-through to as high as 1384.90 by week's end or early next. This target will become an odds-on bet once the December contract has exceeded the 1345.20 'midpoint pivot' with which the higher number is associated. These benchmarks come from intraday charts, but the weekly bars show promise as well, since a 1453.70 target would be in play on a two-day close above 1372.60. Traders looking to get long Wednesday night should use a pullback from just above 1340.50 (an 'external' peak from last Thursday) for leverage.
ESZ13 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:1684.75)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksThe futures continue to move very precisely in both directions relative to Hidden Pivot supports and resistances (see inset). That implies the correction begun from last Thursday's high will reverse from very near the 1673.25 midpoint shown, and that the subsequent rally will carry to a potentially important top at exactly 1769.50 (previously given as 1767.00). Most immediately, however, scalpers can try bottom-fishing via at exactly 1681.00, or if any lower at 1669.00. These are Hidden Pivot correction targets from the hourly chart, and although I expect each to be tradable with a very tight stop-loss, either has the potential to produce a major bottom that would effectively pre-empt one at the 1673.25 'redline' shown in the chart. _______ UPDATE (September 27, noon EDT): The futures have taken a so-far six-point, impulsive bounce off a 1680.00 low. If you used my correction target to get long, please let me know in the chat room and I'll establish a tracking position for your further guidance.
ESZ13 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:1692.25)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksWhat a thrill it was to watch this fearsome predator reverse and embark on a wilding spree off a low yesterday that lay just a single tick beneath the critical threshold I'd flagged at 1687.75. Stops got run up-the-wazoo, giving the upthrust more power than if it had proceeded from the routine, night-session low at 1689.50 (a precise midpoint support, as it happened, derived from Monday's high). The futility and deviousness of the rally were laid bare by day's end when the futures came crashing down in the final two hours of the session. This left a tortuous pattern on the hourly chart, although one could still extract from it a 1681.00 correction target (see inset). This number looked promising for bottom-fishing on Wednesday, but I'd suggest doing so 'camouflage'-style on charts of five-minute degree or less. Please note that bulls would need a print today at 1707.75 to get back on the warpath (and therefore back on-track for 1767.00, my current big-picture rally target).
Bulls Await a Signal from…Miley Cyrus
– Posted in: Free Rick's PicksDaBoyz have been running their usual dog-and-pony show, but in tag-team fashion lately, buying Nasdaq high-fliers for a few days, then rotating the money into Dow and S&P stocks. Clever it ain't, but the tactic undoubtedly keeps tons of OPM from growing lethargic. The goal is of course to have all the averages moving higher together, but this is more difficult to achieve when the headlines are focused on world news, as is the case now, rather than on such crucial topics as Quantitative Easing, Miley Cyrus and Burger King's new lower-calorie french fry.
ESZ13 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:1690.75)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksAfter topping just beneath a 1728.50 rally target flagged here earlier, the futures have retraced to a similarly promising Hidden Pivot support at 1692.60, where I've suggested cautious bottom-fishing. Caution is warranted because just a small overshoot would exceed an important low at 1687.75 recorded on September 17 (see inset), putting the burden of proof on bulls for a rare change. It would also reduce the odds of reaching a 1767.00 target straightaway that had looked like a great bet less than a week ago.
Apple’s Turkey Trot
– Posted in: Free Rick's PicksMost of the high-fliers got hit so hard yesterday that we can only assume that it was intended. Underscoring the fact that DaBoyz have everything perfectly under control was the deftly engineered short-squeeze in Apple, which rampaged $30 against downtrending broad averages yesterday. Seems the company is selling more of those ridiculously overpriced new iPhones than the bozos who analyze and predict such trends had estimated. Some real negatives for Apple persist despite this latest iPhone binge, and so we might expect the stock to eventually take yet another fierce header once all of the shorts' necks have been wrung.