Rick Ackerman

Only Wall Street and the benighted hacks who report the news could have been surprised by yesterday's less-than-momentous announcement from the Fed. The tapeworm will not be implemented after all. What a shocker! As I've shouted here repeatedly, merely talking about tapering is enough to send global markets into a dive. But to actually taper -- even in small increments?  That would effectively send the financial system into a kamikaze dive. That said, we shouldn't fancifully project gold's rally to infinity, since, when the dust has settled following yesterday's non-announcement, it'll be back to business as usual. And that means that strong stimulus -- the kind that might conceivably send bullion quotes skyward -- will be quite impossible, since interest rates are already effectively at zero.

In an update to Wednesday's tout, I said the December contract is bound for at least 1453.70. This Hidden Pivot target (see inset) would become an all-but-certain short-term bet if buyers can ram this vehicle past the 1372.60 midpoint resistance shown. They've made fabulous progress so far, with a war-whoop rally in after-hours trading that has hit 1367.80. Clearly, the weasels who love to bet against gold are on the ropes, short up the wazoo and wont to grow even more desperate. However, we should never count them out, since they are indeed very clever guys with friends in the highest places.  That is why we should assess the further potential of this rally one leg at a time, using purely mechanical tools, instead of tuning to the likes of Jim Sinclair for pie-in-the-sky numbers and false hopes. Keep in mind that gold is a trade, not a religion. On the daily chart (not shown), if the 1453.70 target is achieved, that would exceed a small 'external' peak at 1447.10 recorded on May 14. That in turn would effectively refresh the bullish energy of the hourly chart, creating even more pain for the weasels -- and therefore even higher prices for gold. Traders looking to get long at any point along the way should watch for impulse legs on the hourly chart, but on charts of 5-minute degree or less for 'camouflage' entry signals. Catching a ride on this projectile would become increasingly tricky as the rally draws in more short covering and more bulls, but there is surely enough talent in the chat room to spot the opportunities, and so that's where you should hang.  _______ UPDATE (6:24 p.m.):  Gold traced out a tight flag Thursday (see inset), presumably consolidating the powerful run-up from a day earlier. Although it

The decisive breach yesterday of a compelling midpoint support at 21.568 (see inset) implies that the futures will now fall to at least 20.645 in search of traction. The selloff also took out last Friday's 21.420 low, and although it's an important and obvious one, there may be enough subtlety in the retracement to set up an attractive 'camo' short. For its part, December Gold was meandering early Wednesday morning --too feeble, perhaps, to resist the downward pull of this vehicle.

The tradable swings of the last couple of days have been precisely predictable, as you can see in the accompanying chart. Under the circumstances, we should look for the next push to hit 1712.75 exactly and then stall. Traders looking for a 'camouflage' foothold should use the series of 'external' peaks I've highlighted for leverage, since a 'b-c' pullback from between any pair of them could create the sort of low-risk buying opportunity that is worth waiting for.  D=1712.75 would of course be short-able, with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks. ______ UPDATE (6:57 p.m EDT) The initial bar of yesterday's 'No-Tapeworm!!' short squeeze hit 1713.00 exactly before selling off by 7 points on the next.  When the futures got second wind they rallied again, this time to within three ticks of a 1724.00 target easily discernible on the two-minute chart (A=1695.00 at 2:00 p.m., B= 1713.00 at 2:02 p.m, and C=1706.00 at 2:06 p.m.). So what's next? Look for resistance not far above, at the 1728.50 target of the pattern shown (a new chart). If it gives way easily, however, we'd probably be looking at a finishing stroke to 1767.00, a precise and presumably reliable target that projects from the beautiful one-off 'A' at 1549.75 near the lower left-hand edge of the chart. _______ UPDATE (September 19, 6:40 p.m. EDT):  The feeble bull trap that began in the wee hours Thursday with a rally to 1726.75 -- inches shy of the 1728.50 target given above -- changed nothing in my outlook, least of all the very bullish, 1767.00 target. If the futures continue to correct, however, touching 1692.60, traders should view this as a potential 'camo' buying opportunity, since that's where the Hidden Pivot midpoint of the big rally pattern shown is located.

Silver, with an unpleasant downside target at 20.465, looked poised to pull a dithering gold lower Wednesday morning. Although I expect the Fed's much-awaited announcement to somehow be a non-event, anything could happen. Under the circumstances, traders shouldn't attempt to intercept the swings too aggressively.

Late Tuesday night, gold was getting pounded again, off $16 from the regular-session close. The so-far low is 1291.50, just a single tick from the 1291.40 target shown. Although this was a good a place in theory to attempt bottom-fishing, the pivot looked too delicate for an all-in bet. (Why delicate?  Because if we had used the picture-perfect one-off 'A' at 1334.80 to generate a target, our maximum downside projection for this down-cycle would have been 1292.60 rather than 1291.40, and that would have meant the selloff overshot the target by $2.10 rather than falling a dime short of it.) In any case, traders may have a second chance to get long with little risk on a 'b-c' pullback from just above the external peak (see inset) at 1296.00. Keep in mind that a bigger picture -- i.e., the weekly chart -- will remain correctively bullish down to 1271.80. _______ UPDATE (11:31 p.m. EDT): On the three-minute chart, the entry trigger came at 1296.70, at about 10:54 p.m. The rally subsequently surpassed p=1297.80, leaving you long (in theory) two contracts for a shot at D=1300.00 (where one more contract should be exited). I'm not going to assume any fills here, but if you attempted the trade please let me know in the chat room so that I can get an idea of how many subscribers are out there waiting for these morsels. [Further update, 12:57 a.m.: The futures failed to reach D, falling to what would have been a nearly-break-even stop at 1296.50.] _______ UPDATE (3:39 p.m. EDT): With no Fed tapeworm in sight, the futures have blasted off after bottoming a dime from the target given above. Now, if the December contract pushes easily past the 1372.60 midpoint resistance tonight or tomorrow as we should expect, you can count

Night owls should have a look at my update for the E-Mini S&Ps, since it offers a long-entry strategy using a straight bid and a two-tick (!) stop-loss rather than 'camouflage'.  Elsewhere, the picture in December Gold looked mildly bearish -- somewhat moreso than in December Silver.

Even with a double entry signal (see inset) the futures were having difficulty getting airborne late Monday night. That said, entry off the small pattern at the rightmost edge of the chart required an initial stop-loss of five-ticks -- just within our range for this vehicle. Since the opportunity is past, however, I am proffering the chart to give you an idea of the kind of set-up you should be looking for.  There are still a couple of 'external' peaks yet to be exceeded in this picture, and they have the potential to reduce theoretical entry risk to perhaps as little as three ticks.  Step back to the hourly chart, however, and the picture is moderately bearish, with a 'D' downside target at 1294.10 that will become an odds-on bet if the midpoint support at 1305.40 gets mauled.  Either number can be bottom-fished with a tight-stop-loss, or more conservatively using camouflage.  Coordinates for the pattern are: A=1325.30 (11:00 a.m.), and B=1302.70 (5:00 p.m.)

Apple plowed through a 454.08 Hidden Pivot midpoint with such ease yesterday (see inset) that more downside to D=432.76 seems all but unavoidable. While a strong, impulsive reversal from anywhere above it would put the stock back on track for at least $560 or so, we'll plan on buying some out-of-the-money calls if the selloff gets within 0.30-0.50 of the correction target. Specifically, I'll recommend buying four December 570 calls with the stock trading 433.15 or lower. My rough guess is that they will be selling for around $2.00 at that time, but we'll be able to get a more accurate read as the stock approaches 432.76.  If the order fills, we can try to short some December 580 calls on a bounce for as much as we've paid for the 570s.  More immediately, with $18 of presumptive downside from here, day traders should continue to favor the short side. ______ UPDATE (September 18):  Yesterday's rally was bullishly impulsive on the 15-minute chart (although not on the hourly), but I'm not ready to give up on the 432.76 downside target quite yet. _______ UPDATE (September 18, 10:26 a.m. EDT):  Okay, okay.  I'll be ready to say 'Uncle!' when this nasty little monkey hits 469.19, creating an undeniably bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. At that point, little will have been lost -- only an opportunity to get long at a 432.76 downside target that had looked like a back-up-the-truck number to me -- one that would have been buy-able with a dime stop-loss.