Rick Ackerman

Crude oil's spike yesterday has all but guaranteed a further push to a rally target that is not going to sit well with the many of us who have enjoyed the detumescence of gasoline prices this summer. Oh well, it was never going to last. Easy come, easy go, and every user of energy on the planet will just have to grin and bear it. Is war coming in the Middle East?  In fact, it's already there, perhaps waiting for some hellish escalation that could change everything -- for all of us.

Yesterday's short-squeeze popped crude from a consolidation zone with such force that we'll need to raise our sights. Because the spike easily punctured a clear midpoint resistance, we should infer that the October contract is all but certain to reach the 116.46 'D' target with which the p midpoint is associated. Night owls may be able to catch the next surge with a 'camo' entry near p, which at the moment, on the pullback so far, looks like a potential support. _______ UPDATE (September 18): That last pop went no higher than 112.24, raising the question of whether the hot mess of price bars since early July has been accumulation or distribution. My guess is that we'll see higher highs (the 116.46 target is still valid in theory, by the way), but only after an even more protracted muddle.  That said, we should watch closely for the first instance of an impulsively bearish bar on the daily chart, since that would be something that hasn't occurred since April. _______ UPDATE (September 26, 1:40 a.m. EDT): The nearest downside target of significance is 103.23, so we'll make that our minimum projection for the bear  cycle begun at the end of August. It is a Hidden Pivot support and therefore tradable using the camouflage entry technique on charts of 5-minute degree or less.  If you prefer initiating with a straight bid, which would be somewhat riskier, buy 103.26 with a 15-cent stop-loss. An easy breach of the support would portend a likely test of $100._______ UPDATE (October 1, 9:36 a.m. EDT): The calendar ran out on the October contract, but the downtrend has continued with the November futures and projects most immediately to 100.80, a Hidden Pivot midpoint. Any lower, though, and the 97.82 target shown would be in play. _______ UPDATE

Yesterday's punk rally slithered back up to the midpoint support of the bearish pattern shown, implying that bulls are not eager to take on even small challenges. Indeed, merely marking time seems to be requiring all of the clever tricks they can muster.  Under the circumstances, the 1605.75 downside target shown (see inset) is still a logical price to use as a minimum projection for the near-term.  However, yesterday's heebee-jeebees left little doubt that getting short to that number will be vexatious at best. Bears should also be alert to short-squeeze set-ups intraday. I'd suggest monitoring the three-minute chart for this purpose -- and even to get long for a very short while if the opportunity is signaled, the better to build a profit to cushion the stop-loss on the short we're looking to execute.

Bulls paused for breath midway between two Hidden Pivot targets -- one major at 1428.80, already achieved; and a lesser one at 1439.40 given here yesterday. The fact that the December contract did so after pushing above the 1426.00 'external' peak from June 6 refreshed the bullish impulsiveness of the daily chart and affirmed that buyers are eager to forge higher as soon as this so-far very shallow correction has run its course. As noted earlier, a two-day close above 1428.80 would greatly shorten the odds of a run-up to $1500 or higher. Traders looking to board can try bottom-fishing near the p midpoint of any corrective abc patterns that develop on the 15-minute chart. In that regard, the pattern shown (see inset) could prove useful. The futures have been screwing the pooch near the midpoint support for an entire day, and the next move could go either way. There's a bull trade here, but 'camo' traders will need to zoom down to the 3-minute chart to create a proper entry set-up. Otherwise, if the futures head lower, 1408.30 is where you should plan to do your buying, camouflage-style or otherwise.  Eagle-eyed Pivoteers may notice that I cheated to come up with a point 'C' high on the chart, but the few rules we use are of course made to be broken.

When using put or call options to trade, we should always strive to make these gambles risk-free, since directional plays based on gut hunches are longshot bets. The simplest way to do this entails legging into bull or bear spreads so that the cost of the options one has sold short equals or exceeds the price one has paid for options bought. This produces a ‘credit’ spread. Obviously, it entails buying and selling the options at different times. In this lesson, we looked closely at how to do this, focusing on a riskless put spread in Yahoo! that had been recommended to subscribers. ________________________________________________________________ By Brian Catalucci on August 18, 2013 Stocks were falling when this lesson began, but we went cautiously against the trend in Google to come up with a winner that took all of three minutes to play out. Who cares about the trend when one can make $500 in just a few minutes by catching a small twitch up or down in a $900 stock? In an average day, Google probably twitches hundreds of times. You may be surprised at how easy it is to spot the nervous ups and downs that can deliver quick, painless profits.

The 189.39 rally target shown (see inset) is not lacking in clarity, so we should view any pullback to the 162.19 midpoint pivot as an opportunity to do some cautious bottom-fishing. The longer the stock lingers at that level, the more likely it would be to produce the sort of tedious ups and downs that are the camo trader's forte. _______ UPDATE (September 3): Tesla danced a sprightly jig on the 162.19 midpoint support before taking off on Friday. If you were able to get long near the low, please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. _______ UPDATE (September 3, 6:42 p.m. EDT): Any takers?  This stock is the obedient slave of Hidden Pivot midpoints and D targets, and that's why I'm keen on determining whether any of you caught a ride from the 162.19 midpoint pivot noted above. If so, there are rewards beyond the $27-per-share profit you stand to make if the stock reaches the target. Specifically, you'll have the wherewithal to fearlessly reverse the position and go short there, since it looks like a very high-probability number to produce a tradable top. (Note: I've left the chart unchanged, since yesterday's manic thrust merely created a marginal new all-time high.)

The bullish pattern shown, with its 26.785 target, looks too perfect to disappoint -- especially following yesterday's thrust, which impaled a daunting midpoint pivot while also surpassing a key external high recorded back in April. A pullback to the 24.533 midpoint should be viewed as an opportunity to get aboard belatedly.  'Camouflage' entry is suggested, however, since we've seen in yesterday's decapitation of Silver Wheaton what can happen when bulls get giddy.

Bulls got sandbagged yesterday, trapped on an opening-bar short-squeeze that fell 40 cents shy of the 29.57 rally target we'd been using. Longs might have exited on a stop near 29.03 if they heeded the 1:3 risk reward ratio I always advise holding constant over the life of a trade. So what's next for the stock? My hunch is that it will be back with a vengeance -- loaded for bear, as it were -- but that it could take a while before bulls recover their nerve. Indeed, the wicked selloff from the 29.17 intraday high amounted to an 8% price drop in mere hours. It's tempting to speculate that it happened for no good reason, but clearly, too many traders had grown too bullish. Those of them who survived could take comfort in the fact that the selloff left a couple of 'external' lows on the hourly chart undamaged. That could change today with more downside, but until such time as that happens we should infer that this move is merely corrective rather than the beginning of a protracted period of pain.

It's early Wednesday morning, and December Gold has arrived at a 1428.80 target first broached here when the futures were trading $120 lower. Gold remains a bull trade nonetheless, at least for nimble 'camouflageurs,' based on  a lesser rally pattern that has effectively extended the major one. For explicit and precise details, including the location of the next Hidden Pivot obstacle, check out the chart accompanying today's tout.