Rick Ackerman

Traders should exercise a bearish bias until the stock achieves the 285.61 correction target shown -- a high-probability number, from the looks of this chart. If and when AMZN gets there, we'll look to leg on some 'free' out-of-the-money call spreads, since a strong rally from that low seems like a good bet.  _______ UPDATE (August 18, 2:35 a.m. EDT): ): The stock overshot the target by nearly $1 on Friday, implying it is headed still lower -- specifically, to at least 283.33, the midpoint pivot of the pattern shown. If that support gives way easily, this correction could come down to as low as 278.34, the 'd' sibling. Considering the foregoing, there is no urgency about staking out a bullish spread position. If you've already gotten a leg on, I'd use a stop that risks no more than 0.05 to 0.10 theoretical per call option. _______ UPDATE (August 19, 2:07 a.m. EDT): In Sunday night trading, DaBoyz seem to be respecting Friday's low, although no countermove of substance has materialized. It suggests AMZN will act like a 'market stock' on the opening. If that begets a gap-up opening, I'd suggest blowing out half of your calls then. One way to do this that will allow you to get filled at whatever greedy offer obtains is to offer the calls to close slightly above Friday's settlement price. If the market makers want more for them, your limit order will fill at their rip-off price. Otherwise, use the tight stop-loss suggested above to exit. _______ UPDATE (August 19, 7:11 p.m. EDT):  Since no one even mentioned AMZN in the chat room, I'll assume no position is held. The fact that Monday's lows exceeded such a clear target by more than $1 is bearish on its face, notwithstanding the fact that shorts

From a Hidden Pivot perspective, Silver Wheaton's surge has outpaced the metal. For one, although the futures have fallen shy of impulsiveness on several thrusts, the stock has succeeded at it consistently. And for two, the rally begun a week ago projects not just somewhat higher, as is the case with the September Comex, but significantly higher -- to at least 26.00, but to as high as 28.43, a 13% gain from current levels.

The futures will need only a modest push to get past the key external peak at 22.525 shown in the chart. That would create a quite powerful impulse leg not only on the intraday charts, but on the 'daily' as well.  It would also blow past a clear Hidden Pivot resistance at 22.220, further corroborating a picture of waxing strength.

At this point anything could happen on a given day -- including, as I've mentioned in Today's Action -- a short-squeeze rally to new record highs. Under the circumstances, the least speculative play I can recommend at the moment is to bottom-fish the 1673.00 target shown. This one could play out before the opening bell, so night owls should try to stay alert. Camouflage will nearly always be the method of choice for gambits like this one, but in this case, if you choose, you can put up a straight bid for a single contract at 1673.25, stop 1672.25. You'll be on your own if the order fills, but if the expected bounce from the target materializes, a trailing stop (or better yet, an impulse leg-based stop) should be deployed from 1676.25 on up. _______ UPDATE (9:59 a.m. EDT): Such delightful carnage as we have not seen in a long while has lopped 20 points off the futures so far today.  The cascade was interrrupted by a small bounce from exactly 1673.25, but the rally was fleeting and would have been of little value to scalpers. The intraday low has exceeded any target that could be extrapolated from the intraday charts, so we should probably just sit back and enjoy the selloff while it lasts.

I remain convinced that we are witnessing a very deft and delicate distribution by DaBoyz. Although we should always pay heed to the adage about not fighting the Fed, it is quite plausible that the central bank's best efforts are about to be overwhelmed by the economy's encroaching failure. Nor am I buying the most recent uptick in retail sales as somehow meaningful. With real incomes stagnant, robust consumption implies only that yet more layers of credit are piling up against the weakest U.S. recovery on record.  Of course, none of this precludes the possibility of a short-squeeeze rally that takes the broad averages to new record highs. My guess is that such a rally would be short-lived. In any case, I would not fear shorting into it.

The futures have been up as much as $13 this morning after basing overnight at 1315. The move is not yet bullishly impulsive on the hourly chart, but it would take a further push of just 1.90 above today's so-far high at 1333.60 to remedy that.  Any pullback from just above the relevant peak (1335.40 on 8/13 at noon EDT)) should be viewed as a buying opportunity, but you'll need to position the trade on the 5-minute chart or less to reduce entry risk to our wonted 4-5 ticks.

Bears are winning so far this morning, although it remains to be seen whether they can muster the gumption to push the Dow down 100 points or more. That has become an all-too-rare event in recent years, although the moderate weakness in stocks that we've been seeing lately would seem to hold promise for bears who have been waiting patiently since 2009.

When I wrote here a while back that Blackberry was doomed, I hadn't imagined that the death sentence would come so quickly.  The stock yesterday embarked on the long road to oblivion with a plunge that shaved its valuation by 12% in just a few hours. (This happened off a bull-trap opening, incidentally, and won't it be interesting to see who all got to sell shares at Tuesday's fleeting, clumsily engineered short-squeeze peak?) It might have been worse but for the fact that the company announced it was putting itself up for sale, not going out of business. We wish the buyer well, assuming one can be found. Come to think of it, Microsoft has been a major backer, and acquiring BBRY would seem to fit perfectly with the Redmond giant's habit of buying companies that fail.

A self-serving tweet by the sleazy, paper-shuffling opportunist Carl Icahn sent Apple soaring yesterday.  Icahn's tweet concerned a meeting he'd had with Apple CEO Tim Cook. He told Cook that Apple's shares were underpriced, then repeated the conversation in tweet form to the world. The stock would not have taken such a crazed leap if it hadn't been primed to do so already.  Indeed, the last forecast here said the stock was on its way to $600, driven by a bullish story that is not yet universally appreciated: to wit, Apple is gearing to make a tons of money without having to sell a lot of overpriced electronic devices. Look for the company to turn even more aggressive in striking deals with partners in the entertainment world. As for the stock, it appears headed to the 506.83 Hidden Pivot target shown, at least. Since the stock could already be there before the sun rises on Wall Street Wednesday, I'll leave it to you to figure out a way to board. The good news is that any signaled 'X' entry point is likely to work if your quick enough to catch it with a buy-stop.