Rick Ackerman

Someone in the chat room asked whether a bear market target at 185 proffered here in mid-June was still valid.  The Gold Bugs Index was trading around 261 at the time, so the forecast was quite bearish. Unfortunately, the picture looks pretty dismal at the moment, notwithstanding the presumptive dead-cat bounce that unfolded in July. That rally has very nearly been reversed by the steep fall of the last two weeks, generating a new downside target at 188.28 in the process. Yesterday's decisive breach of the target's midpoint sibling at 225.56 has shortened the odds that 188.28 will l be reached. Traders should therefore position from the short side, using a snap-back rally to the midpoint to get short.  This should be done via camouflage, since there's always a chance the rally will surprise us by blowing past the red line.

There are enough things to like about the corrective pattern shown that I can recommend bottom-fishing its 1268.70 target using a single contract and a four-tick stop-loss.  There is but one drawback arguing for a 'camouflage' approach: the existence of a structural low at 1369.00 recorded on 7/12.  However, it should pose no problem for the canny camouflageur, who can step up the size to four contracts if a perfect entry set-up forms.  Alternatively, bull trades will best be found using impulse legs on the 5-minute chart or less.  At the moment, that would require an upthrust touching 1299.80 (5-min, a=1288.80 at 11:10 p.m.)

As I've noted in 'Today's Action', merely knowing where the S&Ps are likely to top does not necessarily make it easy to short the little sonofabitch.  The futures have spent the last few days playing cat-and-mouse with our 1708.75 target without actually touching it.  Equally frustrating is that pullbacks have been shallow, suggesting we are seeing a consolidation rather than a distribution.  Even so, I'll suggest sticking with the camouflage shorting strategy if you have the patience. Your odds will be best if you initiate the trade within a few ticks of the target rather than several points below it. And while you're waiting, consider taking a small shot from the long side, since any profits you make on a rally toward 1708.75 could be used to cushion a wider stop-loss for the eventual short.  An example of a set-up that traders could bottom-fish without camouflage and using a stop-loss as tight as two ticks (!) is shown in the accompanying chart. _______ UPDATE (11:21 a.m. EDT):  The futures have tanked this morning after having gone no higher than 1703.50.  We were well prepared for this drop, so it's possible some of you may have gotten short. If so, please let me know in the chat room and I'll establish a tracking position for your further guidance. For now, though, you should cover half the position and let the rest ride with a very generous stop-loss based, perhaps, on an impulsive rally on the 5-minute chart.  At the moment, that would imply an uncorrected pop to 1695.75.

Is the market topping here? We're betting on it, although with relatively little at risk. Specifically, subscribers have bought some cheap, out-of-the money put spreads in DIA that have the potential to pay off at 45-to-1.  The maximum gain if the stock market falls apart in the weeks ahead would be $16,000. Although four-and-a-half years into a relentless bull market, odds will always be against our predicting the precise timing of a collapse, I doubt if I'd lay someone attempting it more than 10-to-1. That's why we took the bet -- a value proposition, even though we'll get no payoff for 'show' or 'place'. Meanwhile, we continue to dance around a potential short in the E-Mini S&P using a longstanding target at 1708.75.  I've not going to profess that merely 'knowing' that the futures could top at or very near that number makes shorting it any easier. We've been attempting to do so using the 'camouflage' entry technique, and although traders could conceivably have racked up some gains on trades attempted so far that didn't work out, hitting a short just before the E-Mini tanks is always going to be challenging. Indeed, with the broad averages in pooch-screwing mode for the last month, a trader could have gone crazy looking for an ideal shorting opportunity on the lesser charts.

The futures would need to push up 1376.00 to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart worth getting excited about. However, regardless of whether you're bullish or bearish, December Gold would become a very enticing 'camo' buy on a b-c pullback from just above the 1328.00 peak flagged in the chart (see inset).

The Dollar Index tripped a major 'but' signal on Friday, implying that bullion could come under pressure in the weeks ahead.  Check out the chart accompanying today's DXY tout for details, as well as two specific benchmarks for getting long.

The Dollar Index has spent the better part of July consolidating a 5% rally and now looks ready for a follow-through thrust. Notice that a 'buy' signal was tripped on Friday when DXY exceeded 'x' by two cents. That implies that traders should position from the long side. Next, a crucial test for bulls will come at 83.53, the midpoint resistance of the pattern shown.  An easy move through it would imply that this is indeed a major rally in the making, with potential to hit 85.66, at least.

No change.  Camouflageurs should look for entry opportunities at or near the 1708.75 rally target shown in the chart. In practice, this will entail leveraging the first downtrending abc that meets our criteria once the target has been touched or very closely (i.e., within 3-4 ticks) approached. I'd suggest using the 1-minute chart or less to find your spot.

Having shredded a $457 rally target I disseminated when Apple was trading around $440, the stock now appears bound for the 472.24 Hidden Pivot resistance shown in the chart. That is a minimum upside objective for the near-term, and traders should position accordingly from the long side. Because the rally is so well developed, we'll have plenty of competition trying to find a good entry spot.  That's why we employ camouflage, of course, and you need only pore over the one-minute chart to find the kind of opportunity you'll need to get aboard painlessly: A= 461.13 at 3:45 p.m. EDT on 8/2. _______  UPDATE (August 7, 12:01 a.m.):  Apple's sleazy bull-trap opening should have fooled none of you, since the high came within 35 cents of the 472.24 rally target we've been using for this move.  If you shorted near the top, please let me know in the chat room and I'll establish a tracking position for your further guidance.  _______ UPDATE (August 12): Friday's surge was strongly impulsive on the daily chart, implying that any pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity. If this move exceeds yet another 'external' peak at 484.95 before pausing for breath (see inset, a new chart), look for a push to $600 in the weeks ahead. _______ UPDATE (August 12, 9:16 p.m.): The take-no-prisoners short-squeeze that greeted the day left few easy handholds for us, although very nimble traders could have broken down into tradable pieces. My very bullish outlook still obtains, but only adroit camouflageurs should attempt to trade Apple at the moment, since the stock is about to test resistance at a key peak at 471.89 recorded last week (see inset, a new chart).  Keep in mind that however scary the price action becomes as Apple approaches the peak, 'panic' is