Rick Ackerman

Because the dollar's ups and downs profoundly affect all other asset classes, it's crucially important to get the trend right. We have an excellent benchmark for doing so confidently right now, and you should therefore pay close attention to price action at the Hidden Pivot support flagged in today's Dollar Index tout.

We should consider ourselves blessed to have had no inkling of the very strong earnings reported by this company yesterday.  For had we even suspected that Q2 profits had doubled on a 30% surge in revenues, we'd surely have been tempted to load up on out-of-the-money calls.  But take a look at how Wall Street treated the news. The rally in the opening minutes turned out to be a bull trap -- a sleazy but all-too-common maneuver by the stock's handlers to take advantage of the many very bullish investors who would have placed orders at the opening to buy-at-the-market.  Anyone who did so got sandbagged by the subsequent $5 drop in the share price.  Buy the rumor, sell the news, as the saying goes. Since the trade-desk sleazeballs often, though not invariably, get it right, we should view yesterday's selloff as having been knowledgeable in a way that individual investors are not. The implication is that the former are wary of next quarter's earnings being impacted by the slowdown in emerging markets. Begging to differ, we'd say Goldman shares still look like a good bet to hit 180.36 -- a 12.5% run-up from the current price of 160.24.  We expect the correction to continue for at least the next few days, but if and when GS becomes an opportune buy again, perhaps within the next 4-6 days, we'll do our best to warn you in timely fashion. If you want to be alerted via email in real time, click here for a free trial subscription. (Note: We still hold some bull call spreads that are all but certain to expire worthless on Friday. Since we paid nothing for them, they are of no concern.)

There'll be a flurry of economic news out Tuesday morning (see the E-Mini tout for details), but unless it's horrific, expect it to drives stocks higher following yesterday's headline-less doldrums. Meanwhile, Copper's long bear market shows no signs of abating, as the tout that appears in today's list attests.

Copper's chances of reversing a bear market now well into its third year took a hit recently when the futures slightly exceeded a key low recorded in October 2011. This refreshed the bearish impulsiveness of the daily chart (note: this is a composite chart with 'blended' highs and lows) while reaffirming the 2.7780 bear market target shown. Bulls would earn a fighting chance by pushing this vehicle above the 3. 3490 peak I've labeled, but it looks unlikely right now.  Somewhat less encouraging but still viable would be a print at 3.2435, which would top a lesser peak not clearly visible (but labeled).

After Monday's tedium, the futures are so quiet tonight that one could almost mistake them for cuddly.  In fact, they are more likely the critter in Alien, poised to explode from one's stomach if left unwatched for just a minute or two.  For now, we'll continue to use a Hidden Pivot resistance at 1708.75 as a minimum short-term rally target.  The futures will get there in a trice if the news is good, although truly bad news -- more Fed easing, yay!!!! -- could tend to slow their ascent somewhat.  For your information, due out Tuesday are reports on 1) consumer prices; 2) industrial production; and, from the National Association of Home Builders, 3) the housing market index for July.

The dollar's weakness last week took some pressure off bullion, but will it last? There is promise in the strong impulse leg begun last Tuesday, but we'll have to see how the second phase of the downtrend interacts with the Hidden Pivot midpoint support shown in the chart (which is tentative at this point, since a new 'b' could form). However, if the selloff should reverse without having reached 'p', gold and silver bulls should prepare for a soft patch or worse.  ______ UPDATE (July 16, 8:32 p.m. EDT):  Monday's rally has shifted the crucial midpoint pivot slightly north to 82.31 (see inset, a fresh chart), but we should still expect it to tell us very clearly whether the dollar is headed significantly higher or lower over the intermediate-to-long term.  A decisive breach of this 'hidden' support would imply more downside to at least 81.15 (where we would incline toward cautious bottom-fishing in any event). Alternatively, a rally touching 83.12 that has begun from above 82.36 would imply that bulls are solidly back in command and eager to achieve new recovery highs.

All signs point higher, of course, but we should take note nonetheless of a Hidden Pivot resistance that lies just 150 points above last week's record high, 14598. I expect this impediment to be bulldozed like every other resistance below it has been, but the pivot is short-able nonetheless if you can hold risk down to relative nickels and dimes using 'camouflage' leverage on the 5-minute chart or less.  If the target is easily surpassed -- say, within hours of first being touched -- then we should infer more upside to at least 16309, the 'D' target associated with a somewhat lower point 'A' (see inset).

The broad averages appeared poised at week's end for more up-up-and-awaaaayyy action, as we have come to expect, but I've nonetheless flagged a potential impediment to Wall Street's blithe spirit in today's DJIA tout.  If it gives way easily the next stop would likely be 16309, an 804-point blast above last week's settlement price.

Today's update for September Silver flags a subtle handhold for traders looking for an easy ride.  Bullion and index futures were unusually quiet late Thursday night, but they might not be so well behaved come morning.