Rick Ackerman

As noted in the chat room after Thursday's close, August Gold looks to be consolidating for a thrust to 1327.00 now that the rally has exceeded the crystal-clear target of a lesser pattern at 1288.50 (see inset). Night owls looking for 'camo' entry opportunities should use the 1289.00 trigger of the pattern shown (60-min: A=1246.10 at 2:00 p.m. on 7/10, where p=1301.70). The purple ABC coordinates show this.  ______ UPDATE (July 18, 12:30 p.m. EDT): Yesterday's nasty reversal, triggered by more intelligence-insulting blather from Fed PR-meister HeliBen, left our rally target intact, but it also generated a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart (see inset) that bears watching.  The b-c follow-through has yet to develop, but if the resulting pattern reaches or exceeds its D target, be prepared to reef the sails. _______ UPDATE (July 19, 1:23 a.m.): It would be quite bullish if August Gold were to push above Wednesday's 1299.70 peak without having touched the 1278.70 midpoint correction target of the pattern shown.

With all respect to Scott Fitzgerald, there would appear to be more than a few second acts in American lives. But let it be said that there are almost no second acts in the high-tech business. Thus, while a sociopath like Eliot Spitzer is on the verge of clawing his way back to quasi-respectability after having plummeted into a Mindanao Deep of disgrace, Blackberry, on the other hand, still looks like a goner. Recall that the parent company, Research In Motion, nearly flatlined a couple of years ago after failing to anticipate the paradigm-changing capabilities of the smart phone.  When Blackberry very belatedly jumped on the Android-powered bandwagon, the effort received muscular support from the press, presumably because thousands of reporters and editors were still hooked on Blackberry’s uniquely comfortable keyboard. They remained journalistically loyal to the device with some obsequious ray-rahs and full-page feature stories, even after the company’s 2.0 release proved to have been a work in progress – one that needed fixes for a few bugs and minor functional shortcomings. One might infer that RIM at that point was muddling through Act III; but in fact the firm was, and still is, slogging through the third scene of an extended Act II that will never be completed. We wish it were otherwise, since RIM has tried so hard to get it right. But here’s a recent headline –let’s call it a death notice – culled from an online source:  Research In Motion Posts Huge Q1 Miss: First Net Loss in 8 Years, Blackberry Launch Delayed, 5000 Jobs Cut.  In response to all of the bad publicity, Blackberry’s CEO has done what any CEO would do – i.e., pleaded for more time. We truly wish him well, since, in trying to reinvent itself on an extremely unforgiving deadline,

Today's chart takes a couple of steps back to show what became enticingly obvious with Wednesday's impulsive thrust. A 40-point rally lies ahead, as well as a promising short from the 1708.75 target.  Camouflageurs will need to be at their nimblest to get long, however, since the only 'external' peak remaining that can be leveraged is the one at 1666.75 recorded back in May. It has been exceeded in after-hours trading early Thursday morning, so it's possible that only night owls will get a crack at it. _______ UPDATE (July 14, 11:32 p.m.): Waft, waft, waft. The futures were trading above Friday's highs in very un-timid action Sunday night.  Although the gains were relatively modest as of shortly before midnight, it is brazen of DaBoyz to venture into uncharted waters ten hours before the opening bell. Camouflage entry opportunities will be difficult to find under the circumstances, but the 1677.00 target of a minor pattern (5-min, A=1667.00 at 1:10 p.m. on 7/12) might be helpful to night owls.

An important turn in Treasury futures?  My targets call for even lower lows, but yesterday's strong rally, which began with an opening-bar gap, deserves the benefit of the tout. For further details see today's tout for the September 10-Year futures contract.

I have lower targets outstanding for Treasury futures, but we should be open-minded to the possibility of an important reversal -- especially after days like yesterday, which began with a gap-up thrust. Although the rally came from beneath the midpoint support (red line), implying that the 122^23 downside target is likely to be reached, the futures ended the day in good shape to negate the bearish outlook, at least for the near term. Now, if buyers can drive the futures above the external peak I've labeled at 127^15, it could portend the start of a major rally.  Keep in mind that the move would need to be unpaused once above the 127^02 point 'C' of the downtrending pattern.

Check out my latest update for Netflix if you want to see what the OPM lunatic fringe has in mind for the stock. The Hidden Pivot target I've flagged should be regarded as a minimum upside projection, but also a very likely place for an important top to form -- one that presumably would allow the company's profits to catch up with the Street's hubris and hysteria in perhaps a few years, if ever.

The presumptive correction from May's all-time high at 15542 may about to end, since the Dow need tack on only 20 points to yesterday's high to generate a robustly bullish impulse leg on the daily chart (see inset). I've labeled the two relevant peaks -- one internal, the other external -- that will have been surpassed in the process. As you can see, both are distinctive, single-bar highs whose breach would leave no doubt about the power and authority of this rally. Note as well that peak #2 is 'backstopped' by two others that sit in its shadow. Taken together, they represent a formidable supply zone that looks like it's about to be conquered in a mere week.  From a trading standpoint, there is little to do right now. However, if and when the ABC pattern further develops and trips a buy signal, we'll want to open a long position -- perhaps in the Diamonds -- using camouflage and the leverage of call options.

There’s probably a trillion dollars or more parked in T-Bonds that could soon be looking urgently for a new home. As such, it’s probably a good time to revisit our technical forecast calling for a Dow rally to 16800 -- an 11 percent premium over current prices. Where else can all that money go?  Regardless, we have to assume that a wild plunge into shares right now would be a dream come true for Bernanke & Company, since it would help sustain the meticulously crafted illusion of a recovering economy even as steeply rising mortgage rates asphyxiate the U.S. real estate market. Whatever happens, it’s safe to assume that a new investment paradigm is in effect globally, since anyone holding Treasury paper these days must feel like a dead duck.  How dead? Our technical runes suggest that even after the sharp selloff of the last three weeks T-Bond futures still have quite a ways to go before they could attempt to get traction, never mind put in a solid floor. Specifically, we’re looking for the September contract to fall to at least 129^03 – a 3-1/2–point plunge from here – before they would become an attractive buy. Thirty-year mortgages would be headed north of 4% at that point, which, when combined with the stringent lending standards already in place, would virtually eliminate first-time buyers from the housing market. That in turn would weaken sales upstream, since homeowners looking to trade up would be frozen in place. A Blowoff? As for the Industrial Average, the chart above suggests a push is imminent to a lesser “Hidden Pivot” target at 15649.  That would be a relatively modest thrust, amounting to 549 points, but the additional 1151 points needed to reach 16,800 would by no means be assured. From our technical standpoint, odds

The futures have tiptoed up to the 19.458 Hidden Pivot midpoint of the pattern shown, and if they get past it -- the more easily, the better -- a further run-up to at least 20.245 over the very near-term would become an odds-on bet. It would also refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the intraday charts, since some external peaks to the left will have been exceeded in the process.  Camouflageurs should look to limit entry risk to no more than $30-40 per contract, implying that you'll need to zoom down to the 3-minute chart or less. _____ UPDATE (8:45 p.m.): Buyers punched past our bullish benchmark with a dime to spare before retreating into a shallow pullback. The thrust left an impulse leg that was still intact as of Tuesday night, but it would be negated by a drop below 19.035 (aka point 'C'). Thereafter, it would take an uncorrected rally exceeding 19.590 for bulls to get something going again. The relevant peak is shown in the chart, a fresh one. ________ UPDATE (July 11, 1:35 a.m.): Yesterday's rally was solidly impulsive, surpassing several prior peaks on the 240-minute chart where real rallies begin. The move also left some obvious 'priors' unscathed, opening the door to a possible 'camo' trade entry if the rally pulls back without having gotten past them.  I've sketched this hypothetically in the chart, a new one, for your guidance. _______ UPDATE (8:54 p.m. EDT): At the intraday high, Thursday's rally kissed the 20.240 target of the pattern shown. If the next thrust comes as an extension of the smaller pattern at the chart's right-hand edge (purple coordinates), it'll hit 20.950 (subject to a midpoint impediment at 20.355.  Camouflageurs may want to note the very delicate and potentially useful external peak at 20.295. _______ UPDATE (July