Rick Ackerman

If the futures close beneath this week's 2.9855 so-far low, expect further slippage to at least 2.9765, the next Hidden Pivot support in the sequence shown. Camouflageurs keen on bottom-fishing should look for an entry spot on charts of minute degree or less. Notice that the highest possible 'A' here -- a one-off, in this case -- implies a bear market low at 2.6955, a 9.4% fall from these levels. ______ UPDATE (July 1, 2:00 a.m. EDT):  The support noted above has held so far, but if the rally is the real McCoy it should be able to at least equal the 3.235 D target of (60-min) A=2.9855 (6/25); B=3.0935 (6/25); C=3.0155 (6/27).  _______UPDATE (July 8, 2:28 a.m. EDT): The rally appears to have failed from a high at 3.1790 that fell well shy of my benchmark.

Today's commentary describes exactly what must happen for Comex Gold to generate the most bullish signal we've seen in months. Specifically, the August contract must surpass the two labeled peaks without a corrective pause once the first has been exceeded.  That would create a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, with the implication that any subsequent pullback be viewed as a buying opportunity.  Camouflageurs, take note:  If the b-c pullback comes from a high just a tick or two above the 1254.30 peak (#2), that could provide a very subtle -- and therefore low-risk -- way to get aboard.

The futures head-butted a 1601.00 midpoint resistance three times yesterday (see inset), implying that if and when bulls exceed it they'll be on their way to exactly 1613.25, its 'D' sibling. Both a long and a short are therefore possible today, with camouflage as the method of choice.  If you'd prefer the lazy man's approach, however, you can simply short 1613.25 with a 1.00-point stop-loss. Position size should be limited to a single contract. _______ UPDATE (12:41 p.m.):  The 1.00-point stop-loss proved a tick too tight and took us out of the trade at the intraday high. One chat-room denizen evidently got a nice ride using a 1614.75 stop-loss, which, for purposes of risk management, implied taking a partial profit at 1608.75.  The gain would have been 4.50 per contract, or three times what was initially risked.

A possible finale to the steep plunge predicted here nearly two months ago, when the futures were trading more than $3 higher, came with 19 cents of the 18.115 target this morning.  However, based on a closer look at the chart shown, I am revising the target downward to 17.885.  This looks like a promising spot to try bottom-fishing, and so I'll suggest doing so via camouflage on a chart of 5-minute degree or less.  You should start looking for the opportunity when July Silver gets within 3 cents of the target. ______ UPDATE (July 1, 2:15 a.m. EDT): The 10% rally from Friday's lows may seem impressive, and we should certainly be encouraged. However, take another look at the chart accompanying my original tout and you'll see that the 17.885 target given above still looks quite compelling if not inevitable. Short-term, however, a thrust exceeding June 23's 20.175 peak would be bullishly impulsive on the hourly chart, implying that any subsequent pullback could set up a camo buying opportunity.

This rally is sucker-bait, but we may not get a chance to short the 1604.00 target given here yesterday, since the futures struggled without success to reach a lesser target at 1594.25 (see inset).  The target remains valid nonetheless, but it should be shorted only with 'camouflage' because it coincides with an obvious structural resistance recorded on June 21.  This gambit is for experts only, since a print at 1594.25 would create a bullish impulse leg on the chart shown.

We'll look for ways to short this rally aggressively if it continues, since only a fool or an economist could fail to understand that the steep rise in mortgage rates has already ended America's fraudulent housing boom, and with it the brazen deception that the Great Recession ever ended.

Forecasting the stock market’s price swings accurately is just a cheap parlor trick, as we often like to remind subscribers.  For the most part, and notwithstanding the diligent efforts of Wall Street’s Masters of the Universe to manipulate shares to their advantage, we see technical evidence each day that suggests that stocks and commodities are ruled by a sort of cosmic metronome. If you’re skeptical, we would urge you to visit the Rick’s Picks chat room sometime and see for yourself that predicting the exact highs and lows of minor trends has become a matter of routine for many of the technically trained ninjas who frequent the room. Far less predictable, however, are the kind of seismic events that make headlines and which have the potential to shake the financial world to its core.  Indeed, speculating about what might happen the next day, even the most gifted market seers cannot but hazard a guess as to whether the Dow Industrials are about to plummet by two-thousand points or instead rise by as much.  Thus do the market’s more or less predictable ups and downs ultimately do the bidding, not of algorithms and trading machines, but of a fearsome, id-driven hybrid of insect, reptile, sea monster and rabid dog. Traders step into the cage with this diabolical creature each day and take its measure not really knowing whether it is about to lull us to sleep, or instead rewrite history with a feat so stunning that even those who have observed the markets for 50 years will be numb with shock. Lulled to Death But as long as stocks continue to move mainly in one direction, as they’ve been doing since March of 2009, we tend to see, not the nightmares of investors’ collective subconscious, but a quite normal species that

With yesterday's breach of a clear HP support at 1559.75, the futures signaled further weakness to as low as 1518.50.  Important lows made in March/April just above that number will make it less useful for our purposes, however, since 'structural' support will likely supersede Hidden Pivots in determining a swing low. The most promising short conceivable at this point would be from near the 1604 midpoint pivot of the pattern shown. That's a 45-point rally from here, and that would surely be enough to turn 'everyone' bullish again.  We would have good reason for caution, however, since a run-up to the midpoint pivot would have 'bull trap' written all over it

We haven't traded Silver Wheaton (SLW) in a while, but I've included the stock in today's list of touts because it would become an enticing buy on a further fall of about 13% from current levels. For precise details, including an option-based strategy for bottom-fishing, check out the SLW tout and the chart that accompanies it.